Big uns and day tomorrow. Might be somewhat similar to Wednesday nite
The main forecast concern will be the potential for strong to severe
t-storms in the afternoon and evening as a strong cold approaches
from the west. The increasing forcing for ascent will likely result
in a greater areal coverage of storms. Mid level lapse rates are
marginal, but the heat and high dewpoints should make up for this
with CAPES likely reaching 1500-2500 J/kg in the interior. This
instability combined with impressive deep layer shear of 40-50 kt is
very favorable for organized storms. Given strong linear forcing
ahead of the front, storms will likely organize into line segments
or even some sort of QLCS as indicated by all the hi-res CAMs.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but can`t rule out
large hail or even a tornado if any discrete supercells can develop.
SPC SREF showing moderate probs of STP > 1. Best chance of severe
weather will likely be north and west of I-95 due to marine layer
near the coast and CSU machine learning probs and HREF updraft
helicity are highlighting the interior for severe weather. Also
can`t rule out locally heavy rainfall and flooding from t-storms but
severe weather appears to be the greater threat.