This month is a great example of why you simply cannot base or make forecasts off of medium to long range models. They generally are never correct. Until you get under 2-3 days to say “ The last 15 days of the month looks great , with cold and storm chances”.. you really can’t do that and have much chance of being right. It’s more pattern recognition and persistence forecasting until something physically breaks that persistence. I’m more convinced now than ever.