Yeah this sounds decent despite Kooky Kenny posts 70+ where most folks LIVE thru Thursday
Confidence higher in the temperatures across southern New England on
Monday with the EPS and other guidance sources interquartile range
around 5-7 degrees. Should see temperatures topping out in the low
60s across NE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands to the mid 70s in the CT
River Valley. Lots more spread on Tuesday/Wednesday with the
interquartile range getting to 10-20 degrees between the 25th and
75h percentile. Do have a bit more confidence on Tuesday across CT
of temps in the low to mid 70s. Leaned on the NBM guidance due to
the uncertainty at this point in time. Readings on Wednesday also
fairly spread given uncertainty with the frontal passage. Readings
range from the low 60s to low 70s. This is all despite the mild 925
hPa air in the 9 to 15+ degree Celsius range as low level easterly
flow will keep those temperatures down.
Did add a mention of thunderstorms later on Tuesday into early
Wednesday as there is a surge of warmer air advecting in and the
front appears to jog a bit further northward. Models showing a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across western MA into CT, which is possible
given models showing some sky clearing in the low to mid levels