Damage In Tolland

This is how we dew it …

They follow the droughts. Several years ago that was CT and RI. Now it’s the NW Hills on north into VT . I’d bet next spring they have a severe outbreak in C and NNH up into Maine , and possibly even on the Cape. Those areas are in long term drought

Wonder if the gypsies hit your area hard next few years. These dry years are how they get a foot hold. CT/ RI last 3-4 yrs . Now this year they’ve crushed NW CT up thru Berks up to Freaks area and ENY.

Hopefully there’s fireworks deep into each weekend night

Most all of that is Thursday into Friday. Poor GFS. Alone and wrong again

I guess what I mean is I believe it’s more likely a 74/70 weekend with downpours than 52 with cold rain. And again. I could be wrong admittedly

They do ice storms great there. You always hear about great icing there as the cold air funnels down that Wilhamette Valley

I wish you’d speak upon thoughts on holiday weekend instead of roofers falling off houses like gypsy moths off trees from fungus

Yes

I just don’t understand why some people seem to think the op run is going to verify at day 6-7? In winter do we do that? There’s a great poster in the NYC forum Bluewave, that has been noting for years that the op models always underestimate the strength of the war. So for example in winter when we all get naked to a 12”-16” snowfall at the 40/70 at day 6-7,, it typically ends up west and we congrats you . It’s the same thing in summer only stronger. Why is it so hard to envision this being a warm humid, stormy one day deal with either a weak fropa or maybe even the front just dissipates overhead? Why can’t that be another option at this range, especially with ensemble offering that as an option? I’m really trying to be more open minded and I don’t see why that’s not an option here?

I actually don’t think your thought process is too far off mine . You are just thinking it’s going to be a cold weekend not far from MDW. I think one day, maybe part of a 2nd day could have a stormy look. I just don’t think the cold is going to happen. My feeling is trough axis sets up west of the Apps . Meaning wet potentially , but not 52 for 2-3 days. That’s the main difference. I just feel the WAR will put up much resistance . It’s summer so - NAO means little with such a beast ridge. I’d just be careful to the folks thinking it’s a cold rainy weekend . To me. We very easily end up on the east side with SW humid flow . Maybe a met like Wiz or Tip can elaborate on that thought process

It’s why you doubt the GFS solution . Euro coming around slowly to warm humid stormy day. It’ll end up being 70’s humid and probably heavy downpours /storms one weekend day. Not 52 and rain all weekend lol. They’re slowly getting there .. recognizing the WAR strength. You don’t just blast a trough/ ULL into that with cold rains

Scooter?

I’ll be out in FMH like always for the 4th. All the years we’ve been going there there’s never been a rainy , cold weekend and this year won’t be any different

Plenty of Dilfs in speedos around ?

If the EPS is right it’s all suppressed south and sunny and 80. A compromise is probably in order

Not according to BOX.. We wouldn’t be locking in GFS runs 7 days out on winter would we? I think you’ll see the humid conditions continue just not the heat . Can see maybe low - mid 70’s with sun / clouds downpours in afternoons . This is near record heights on the WAR. It’s not going away with a battle .

It’s 7 days away and one op run. This will evolve and change quite a bit over the coming days. No support .. like a broken bra.

Didn’t you see this? Unless they misread the model EC is more progressive and advances the shortwave trough across the Great Lakes region and into northern New England by the weekend. The EC solution would favor a frontal system crossing the region Thursday or Friday with showers and thunderstorms, then potentially dry weather for Saturday, while the GFS solution favors several days of showers/thunderstorms and more persistent warmth/higher humidity levels into next weekend.

As BOX noted this morning the GFS did. I just think we’ll start seeing things sort of morph into that general idea as we get in closer to 2-3 days

A warm humid weekend with storms wouldn’t be the worst thing . Still time to evolve

Either HHH and stormy like GFS or warm and dry like Euro. Based on the strength of that WAR.. GFS is the lean with dews , heat storms The EC solution would favor a frontal system crossing the region Thursday or Friday with showers and thunderstorms, then potentially dry weather for Saturday, while the GFS solution favors several days of showers/thunderstorms and more persistent warmth/higher humidity levels into next weekend.

Do you ever sit there naked?

Things def trended this way today., Models severely underestimating the WAR. You can foresee them continuing that time and the humidity does not break next weekend. We’ll see ho things trend