Damage In Tolland

Was there ever one?

No one wants cold and fall weather in early September. It’s still summer. After the 20th it can and should start getting cold with snow chances by Oct

Windy

Meanwhile, at the surface, remnant low level circulation of Ida likely tracks along or just off the south coast of New England, placing CT/RI/MA on the cool side of the storm. If this storm track verifies, a chilly windswept rain with gusty NE winds would materialize, as models suggest a robust 45 kt low level NE jet north of the surface low. This may result in a low risk of wind gusts strong enough for minor tree damage given fully leaved trees. Furthermore, this track would place the cool sector over CT/RI/MA, shunting any severe weather/tornado threat offshore. Although, still 2-3 days away, so mesoscale details can change between now and then, specifically the axis of heaviest rainfall. New 12z GFS storm total rainfall has a swath of 2-4" across CT/RI and south of the MA Pike. New 12z GEFS supports this idea with 4+ inch probs across the same area. 12z EC farther north with axis of heaviest rain across northern CT into Greater Boston area, with amounts up to 6 inches. 12z EC ensembles support this heavy rain signal, with low risk of 4+ inch probs across CT into RI. Thus, this heavy rain signal combined with current flows of small rivers and streams much above normal /not much capacity remaining for additional rainfall/, further increases the flood threat. This combined with 1) remnants of Ida yielding PWATs 2+ inches, strong mid level Fgen in response to confluent flow over New England and an anomalous 140kt jet streak over southeast Quebec (+2 SD), with RRQ over CT/RI/MA, enhancing QG forcing for ascent. All of these parameters are supportive of a flood watch for CT/RI and southeast MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. This flood watch may need to be expanded northward tonight or Tue, if forecast confidence increase on heavy rain axis shifting northward. We will have to watch closely where the confluent zone sets up, as there will be a sharp north to south qpf gradient, yielding big qpf bust potential.

You can.. but the order won’t ever ship

We may as well continue crushing rainfall records. It ain’t gonna snow much this winter, so let’s cheer something on

Beer

GEFS, GFS, Ukie north.. Euro equal to 00z or maybe a shade north now getting Dendy

Wheeeeeeee

We’ve moved onto September threads

Wonder if we can get 7-10” if it over performs!?

I saw two south and three north . Turn that model upside down

We tried to tell em. Some had monitors upside down and thought north was south

Too? Only NAM and Canadian were south

On the UKie , GFS and Gefs? Put down the coffee and switch to beer

The one that had now moved up to soak Dendy. See your next post

The north trend is very real. This probably drops a few inches up to Dendy in the end

Feel the tickle from your south ?

We’re just not following these forecasts here that cold fall weather is starting later this week and locking in. Who expects dews in the 70’s to last thru October? We had that all summer from June to Aug, but as September hits you lose the days and days of dews. It certainly doesn’t look cold at all to my eyes over the few weeks. Just normal late summer weather with warm days and mild nights

Ok

Foy you sure

Big boy today

Most 12z guidance still flooding us . Winds seem nada

How drunk are you ? Because there’s countless videos and actual obs of 140-163 mph gusts

This is insanity