Big issues
Tropical Storm Debby...
There remains a lot of uncertainty surrounding the late week and
early weekend forecast regarding the track of Tropical Storm Debby
and what impacts might be seen in southern New England. While there
is rather high confidence that Debby gets "hung up" in the
Charleston/Savannah area early this week anticipating
the low, and moisture, will eventually be steered towards our
region. Impacts from Debby may begin as early as Friday
and last through Sunday evening. Ensemble probabilities paint a
picture of a 10 to perhaps 40% chance of 24 hour QPF exceeding 2"
and a few pixels of exceeding 4" of QPF during the same period.
Combining this with deterministic runs, with both the GFS and ECWMF
showing wide swaths of 2-5"+ of rain across the region, its quite
reasonable to deduce, based on the current forecast track of the
storm, that this storm will bring a considerable amount of rain to
SNE. In fact, WPC has placed us in an uncommon day FIVE marginal
risk for excessive rainfall, which may be elevated in later updates.
We will have a better grasp on the expected max precipitation
potential and location of heaviest rain over the next several
days.