CAMs are highlighting area near the Mass Pike in
central and western MA to northern CT and northern RI near the
surface boundary for later this afternoon, with additional
heavy rainfall expected tonight. Flash flood watches continue. 1
to 2 inches of rain is expected in the watch area through
tonight with CAMs suggesting localized 4"+ rainfall amounts
possible.
Severe weather is also a concern given rather rather unstable
environment that develops this afternoon with MLCAPES 1500-2000
J/kg near and south of the boundary. Best shear will be north
of the region but 25-30 kt of 0-6km shear is expected which is
enough for some updraft organization and multicellular clusters
with damaging wind the main threat. However, there is a low
prob for an isold tornado with any storms that can anchor to the
warm front which is a source for surface vorticity and enhanced
low level shear. Greatest severe risk will be in the same locations
for heavy rainfall, along and south of the Pike from central/W
MA to northern CT.