Boom?
. A number of convective permitting models
simulate initial storms around early to mid afternoon across central
NY, merging quickly into a line of storms with bowing segments
depicted moving eastward into eastern NY, western and central MA
into northern CT between ~22-02z (5-10 PM). Did coordinate with SPC
and neighboring WFOs about raising the severe risk to Slight
Risk/15% into our western and central counties and a more
conditional Marginal risk to the eastern MA coast. While the most
evident severe risk lies in NY, some will likely bleed over into
Southern New England. Despite weak wind fields, this is a still a
favorable parameter space for severe storms. It`s difficult to
really message the scope of the risk given the uncertainties in the
timing. While gusty to locally damaging winds and heavy rain are the
main risks, given the depictions in the higher res models and the
level of instability that is forecast, it is not out of the realm of
possibility that corridors of enhanced wind damage could ensue into
our western-central MA/CT counties, especially if storms develop
earlier than anticipated. Pl