No spiking anything until we see if this trend is real. But this is so typical of models overdoing TPV confluence past 5 days and weakening closer in . It happened so often in the early and mid 2000’s. Hopefully the trend is real and continues
This is classic N trends from the early 2000’s. I remember those days vividly . That’s why they hated us and forced us to separate the forum into regions
You’ve got 45-55 at top of mixed layer with steepening lapse rates and strong CAA. It’s going to rip , especially with extra help from daytime heating tomorrow . Elevations favored as usual in any wind event for biggest gusts.. but sometimes these channel into your area of the valley there .
https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1874536470561816785?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg
That’s actually kind of what I envisioned this winter. December was wet but I’m not shocked . Though I don’t think that will end up verifying like that
The chance seems great enough to mention . If you issue a partly cloudy forecast and the north trends continue , it’s not a good look to the public. So you’ve got to acknowledge in a forecast this may happen , but will need to monitor birth trends