There was a ton of apple cider, frost and freezes , flannels , back breakers posts . Every single cool Shot modifies this month. That’s all we were saying . Not 80’s and 90’s. Just a continued AN pattern
AWT. Modify to AN still
Additionally, with ECMWF indicating upper low opening up and lifting well to the NW into eastern Canada, airmass behind the fropa will be modified so not expecting a significant cooling trend into next weekend.
Modify her
Also models
differ on how cold post frontal airmass will be Fri. GFS/GEFS blast
trough thru New England with subzero 850 mb temps across northern
NY/New England Fri. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and its ensembles have
trough sheared and lifting off to the northeast, with much weaker
cold air advection across SNE.
The way all these “brokeback” air masses have been modifying on models as we get close in and then verification.. you’d figure the same will happen late next week. Not to say there’s not a few days of low-mid 70’s and nights in 40’s, but with warm Great Lakes acting as modifiers.. tread on any bitter shots with caution
Maybe on the magic Mtn it’s like that. But for most of the rest of the laymen .. it’s about 70% related to the weather conditions. Early ad cool falls like last year things pop and fall weeks ahead.. warm humid falls with little in the way of cool nights and warm sunny days means weeks late such as 2011.
If that was the case we’d have equal changes each year in terms of when they change and when they fall. Last year with the cool September they were weeks ahead of normal.. helped in part by the drought. This year with no cool fall weather yet.. everywhere is well behind
And start earlier but especially end later . Which affects leaf change . Peak dates moving farther out in time. Not in 50 years, but now and the past 20 years