Torch!!
Amplifying pattern across CONUS for Thursday and Friday (at least),
with ridge aloft with +2 sigma height anomalies across most of the
eastern US and southwest sfc winds. Fairly active center of the
country with a deep trough aloft, with a likely slow-evolving cold
front moving through the MS Valley and western OH Valley. 850 mb
temps vary slightly across models but aren`t any cooler than +12C.
These forecast ideas fairly well agreed upon across most models.
Main story in this period is an overall dry weather pattern with
above to even well-above normal temps. Expecting highs to run in the
mid to upper 70s for most (cooler near the coast). It is lower
probability but not out of the question a few sites could approach
80 degrees by Friday! MEX-based temps are some 12-15 degrees warmer
than mid-October climatology. That`s pretty telling since MEX MOS
guidance tends to bias/trend towards climo in the extended range.
Next chance for rain looks to be around next weekend. Uncertainty in
timing but the amped-up mid-level pattern would favor a slower
outcome than a progressive one. While details aren`t clear,
indications are that it could be a fairly significant frontal
passage when it does clear through SNE, given synoptic scale
indications of strong height falls and SSW subtropical feed of
moisture.