Damaging afternoon ahead . Fruitless to do leaves
Valid 1312002 - 1412002
• THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
• SUMMARY.
A few strong
to locally damaging thunderstorms are possible from
northern New Jersey into southern New England beginning around 1pm.
Strong wind gusts are most likely, but small hail is possible as
well
•Synopsis and Discussion.
A longwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS during the day,
with an upper low centered over James Bay.
An embedded shortwave
will move quickly from the OH Valley into New England, with strong
cooling
aloft.
At the surface,
a cold front will surge east across the Mid Atlantic
and Northeast,
wain minimal moisture return anead of it wins aloft
will be very strong, although much of it will exist above expected
storm tops.
The primary thunderstorm risk will
exist
over parts of the Northeast
during the early afternoon,
in association with the potent shortwave
trough and lift along the cold front. Although dewpoints are only
forecast to be in the 40s and perhaps near 50 F,
500 mb temperatures
will drop to around -25 C, resulting in low-topped SBCAPE profiles
of a few
hundred J/kg. Models suggest storms will form over northern
NJ around 182, and spread east/northeast across southern New
England.
Extreme deep-layer shear will exist, and hodographs will primarily
be straiont line, iowever,
due to the low-topped nature of the
storms, much of the shear will be above storm top and rendered
ineffective.
Stil
locally damaging gusts will be possible with
both cells and line segments. In addition, and despite weak
instability, small hail appears likely given very cold temperatures
aloft.