It really is Ninas and tropical forcing. They just can’t resolve it. There is zero skill on MR and LR forecasting . You just have to toss all of it, analogs etc.. and just go off pattern recognition. Ninos are much better
It really is amazing how bad computer modeling screw shit up in Nina’s. Can you imagine living in Chicago thinking you’d have 1-2 feet and a region crippling blizzard not 2 days ago and are now looking at nothing. At least with us when it showed the blizzard it was 7-10 days out . And it was only 1 day. You almost just have to forecast off of knowledge