Wild uns Wednesday
Wednesday will be the focus for impactful weather in the extended
forecast period. The forecast remains on track with hot and a very
humid airmass pushing into southern New England and though the
ensemble probabilities of 90F in the CT valley have backed off in the
last 24 hours, upper 80 are likely and it will feel quite humid
thanks to dewpoints in the 70s. All the ingredients are there for
another round of thunderstorms, though timing and details remain
uncertain. Forcing will be provided by a passing mid level
shortwave, surface frontal convergence, and placement beneath the
RRQ of an 85 kt upper jet. The atmosphere will be anomalously moist
with the aforementioned dewpoints and PWATs approaching 2 inches.
This contributes to instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE. This is a recipe for widespread showers and thunderstorms,
some of which could be severe given 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 kts.