HRRR has been atrocious going back to last winter . It has shown feet of snow that vanished in the last 6 hours. Widespread severe tstorms that don’t ever form and now this. Abysmal model .. And when it’s all by itself on an island . Don’t bother
I can see Far far SE CT like GON area . Like a fraction of the state. Most are well under .10 which E MA has or will have with that heavier slug moving in
Well my question is.. why didn’t that same NE flow that we did have today produce those same showers/ storms that NNE into WNY had? Why was there nothing south of there in same flow / cold pool? My uneducated guess is dry air in low levels more prevalent in SNE along with subsidence from offshore low
I really am hoping the heavy rainer crew is correct . As you can see me and my “doctored” hydrangeas need it. There’s going to be a very sharp cutoff between have and have not . They very well may be correct and I’ll acknowledge their good forecasts and tip the cap . I am highly skeptical but hopeful .
What are your thoughts?
That area is fairly shady . And if you look.. it’s not just the hydrangeas. Most of the the ones around here look the same or similar . You’ve gotten some good storms the last 30 days . I mean what do you think I’ve “done” to them ? Lol
You’re not pouring lol. This is not going to throw heavy rain hundreds of miles west . The flow around is drying and wnw . Not saying you don’t get a bit of rain . People are going bonkers over heavy rains way back into W MA and CT.
Kind of my thinking here aka GFS/ Euro/ Reggie .. dry air and low dews eat up precip west of PVD . WNW flow and tighter center should pull heaviest precip east