Congrats TAN
Main concern during this timeframe is the risk for localized
flooding, especially across eastern CT, RI, and central/eastern
MA. Given that we`ve been dry for the past couple of days it
will take a bit for flash flooding with 1 and 3 hr RFC FFG being
roughly 2-4". At this point think that this is the highest risk
for impactful weather for our area as PWATs are around 1.5-2
inches for much of Fri with warm cloud layer depths between
4-4.5 km. Did bump up precip amounts toward the NERFC/WPC
guidance, which matches up well with the HREF 48 hr PMM
guidance. The result is widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall and
think that there could be localized amounts of 3+ inches
especially in any areas where thunderstorms develop. Think the
risk is highest across the aforementioned locations above as
this is also where the 30-40+ kt LLJ is moving through. Given
how localized this threat is anticipated to be, based on
embedded thunder activity we have held off from hoisting a Flood
Watch at this point in time.