Damage In Tolland

Saturday was warm and sunny from about 2:00 on. This looks similar but even warmer

Yup.. and Wednesday won’t be as cold as NAM has either

Now post Thursday

Beer

Any Dilfs in dugout?

Urine?

Mild to warm week this week will really move things along .

Things greening up and growing nicely now . Maple trees not too far from slowly leafing out next 10-14 days

This is going to be a wild evening for the area south of 90 right to E MA

Sun out . Let’s go folks

Tor!

It’s been 55 here since 10 AM

Let’s F’ing go.

We take trees down

HRRR is wild into RI and E MA. Game on

F+. The + being the big, damaging icestorm

Hopefully a few of these around SNE this evening.

Had a bright but distant flash of lightning on mile 4 this morning. It rained all the way from there to home the last mile. HRRR is wild tonight . Hope it’s right.

Thinking the potential is there to generate between 400 and 800 J/KG of Cape. While that is a lot...we have extreme jet dynamics with Bulk shear values on the order of 50 to 60 knots. In addition...steep mid level lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 C/KM will be advecting into the region...which is usually a missing ingredient in southern New England. While the severe weather threat is conditional depending on how much instability we can generate...some of the machine learning probs from the NCAR ensembles and Colorado State show some potential. The main threat will be strong to damaging straight line wind gusts...but some hail is possible given the steep mid level lapse rates. In fact...even a low risk for a tornado given ample 0-1 KM helicity. Greatest risk for severe weather would be across interior southern New England...but can/t rule out areas further east given strong jet dynamics. If this does happen...thinking more of a late show between 5 and 11 pm Saturday evening.

Long track TOR there

Damaging !