This is Phil’s map ( he used to be a regular here until driven away)
https://x.com/capecodweather/status/1736034738949775670?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg
It’s amazing the model agreement we have with globals and mesos. Tracks right up west of NYC and west of ALB. I do think heaviest rains end up west over NJ and NY