Damage In Tolland

HRRR is wild into RI and E MA. Game on

F+. The + being the big, damaging icestorm

Hopefully a few of these around SNE this evening.

Had a bright but distant flash of lightning on mile 4 this morning. It rained all the way from there to home the last mile. HRRR is wild tonight . Hope it’s right.

Thinking the potential is there to generate between 400 and 800 J/KG of Cape. While that is a lot...we have extreme jet dynamics with Bulk shear values on the order of 50 to 60 knots. In addition...steep mid level lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 C/KM will be advecting into the region...which is usually a missing ingredient in southern New England. While the severe weather threat is conditional depending on how much instability we can generate...some of the machine learning probs from the NCAR ensembles and Colorado State show some potential. The main threat will be strong to damaging straight line wind gusts...but some hail is possible given the steep mid level lapse rates. In fact...even a low risk for a tornado given ample 0-1 KM helicity. Greatest risk for severe weather would be across interior southern New England...but can/t rule out areas further east given strong jet dynamics. If this does happen...thinking more of a late show between 5 and 11 pm Saturday evening.

Long track TOR there

Damaging !

What?

Whhheeeeee

Yanks on at 1:05. Cold day in The Bronx

Good spot here. Really anyone west of ORH

LFG!! We damage

Dewy with storms Sat nite

Until next fall ….

Looks warm next two weeks at least

Deep winter run this morning with snow OTG, icy roads , temp 25.2 and wind

This is absolutely incredible…

Damage!

Lol. Blackouts

We need this

Overall the month looks like a torch with AN. Early warmth this year . We often see that when transitioning from Nina to Nino .

Is this the new regime? Yikes

This Saturday we sector . 65-70 with pm sunny breaks . GFS has sneaky severe outbreak SNE.