Strong/Damaging Winds...
As for the wind threat the EPS continues to be more amped up. The
EPS indicates winds 2-3 STD above model climo, but the V
component (north/south) is around 3-3.5 STD above model climo.
As for the NAEFS the winds are around 2-2.5 STD, while the V
component is 2.5- 3 STD above model climo. Both sources
indicate most anomalous winds at 850 hPa, which makes sense as
deterministic guidance showing a 50- 80+ kt southerly jet
impinging on our region. The big question on the winds is the
exact timing and typically it is a bit more difficult to mix
down southerly winds this time of year. This risk could be
increased especially in areas where heavier rain slides through
or with thunderstorm activity.