1025 am update...
made modest tweaks to the grids based on latest radar/satellite
trends and the initial output from the newest hi-res CAMs. SPC
has increased the threat level for severe weather to the Slight
category across western portions of southern New England. Looks
reasonable, and in typical New England style, nothing is clear
cut for how things are going to unfold. Certainly, as previous
shift indicated, good signals for instability, shear and even
low level helicity. The latest CAMs are all similar in that they
show a broken line of convection to develop but otherwise they
are all over the place in timing and location. FV3 came in more
agressive than NAM3km and the recent HRRR runs. Perhaps it`s on
to something given we already have convective development in
western CT at this time. Also some suggestion we have one batch
of convection early/mid afternoon, with a second line developing
later in the afternoon and getting into western sections after
6pm. In any case, as is typical with convection, we are just
going to have to roll with the punches and respond to whatever
Mother Nature decides to give us.