Looking like a wild evening and night west of a line from ORH to PVD
Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms are likely to occur
from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The
potential exists for a few severe storms with damaging winds,
as well as for an isolated tornado. Short range models show
convection beginning in CT and western MA as early as 4 PM or as
late as 7 PM. The ECMWF is sooner...around 2-3 PM. As the night
progresses, even though heating is lost, they dynamics
increase as wind fields strengthen. By 09Z, the SREF on the SPC
website shows 50-70 percent probability of 0-6km bulk shear
greater than 40 kt across western MA and northern CT. The
`tornado ingredients` chart highlights that area as well, after
being maximized in eastern New York earlier in the evening. GFS
and ECMWF Sigtor levels reach 1-2 and 0-1km helicity is 100-200
during the overnight hours. Expect isolated to scattered strong
to severe storms across the region through the night.