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Damage In Tolland

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  1. All anyone needs to know is until Will starts posting again .. take some time away
  2. The problem they don’t seem to understand or comprehend is if this in fact tracked to our west they’d likely be sitting in the dark naked on cold metal folding chairs. When we were discussing this last week, the initial track was west and damaging. As we got closer track shifted east which took the big wind out east . I don’t see why they don’t understand this .
  3. Those were the gusts I saw Around here it was 35-40.. se CT over to SE MA was 55-70
  4. Had the storm cut west as modeled it would have been a huge wind producer. As it ticked east, we lost that high wind component. It’s pretty easy to follow.
  5. 3.53” Might sneak out 4”. Just SE of here in Willington is over 4
  6. Not saying I agree but the lack of cold is concerning if this is right https://x.com/jimsullivan92/status/1733897340787028273?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg
  7. https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1733962292184699226?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg
  8. Just hit the 1” mark. First round overperformed. 4-6” more?
  9. Several pieces of guidance show the possibility of the low stalling, or even backbuilding a bit, overnight, which would prolong the duration of heavy precip. The overall QPF forecast remains consistent with the previous shift, with a maximum of 4-6", perhaps locally higher, forecast over east central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. HREF ensemble consistency has been rather remarkable over the last few runs, with little to no wobble in the anticipated axis of heaviest precipitation and consistency in the 24 hour LPMM (best reasonable guess for maximum precip potential) showing a widespread swath of 5- 7" across the aforementioned region. While it may seem insignificant, both the CMC and GEFS ensembles show bullseyes of 10-30% probabilities of 4" of QPF or greater over Tolland/Windham County Connecticut; which is marked as a considerable signal for significant precip in terms of global guidance. Thus, with all things above considered, collaborated with WPC and our neighboring WFOs to upgrade the Excessive Rainfall Outlook to MODERATE, to highlight the increased potential for flash flooding.
  10. https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1733931332974129186?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg
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