EPS mean and Euro keep increasing gusts. 925 has been steadily ramping. Hopefully this is real deal . We want every tree, line, and Christmas lawn inflatable down .
Looks like it’s more pushed to early Jan. I fully plan on a warm and green holiday period . You always hate the “pattern 10 day push backs” For now, that’s all we’ve got
The
GEFS/EPS indicate both the southerly LLJ and PWAT plume to be 2-3
standard deviations above normal...which is a pretty good signal
this far out. In addition...the CIPS analogs are showing some modest
probabilities for a period of 40+ knot wind gusts. And the CSU
Machine learning probs are indicating a risk for convectively
induced severe winds.