Wind Signals...
Confidence still is the highest at this point for strong to damaging
winds. The latest NAEFS/EPS guidance keeps trending upward.
Currently showing winds 4-6 STD above model climatology! Ensembles
indicating this at the 850 hPa level, which are progged at this
point by deterministic guidance with speeds of 60-90+ kts generally
out of the south. The big question is how much of these winds mix
down. At this point are only starting to get on the outer periphery
of the NAM guidance for Bufkit soundings, so have focused on the GFS
Bufkit soundings for now. At this point they show 60-70 kts of winds
roughly 500-1000 ft AGL across the Cape/Islands. Further inland
values are still nothing to scoff at with 40-50 kts roughly 1000 ft
AGL. Would like to get more of a look at the NAM and convective
allowing guidance window to have a better feel on the mixing, as the
GFS tends to overmix. Given the signals have still stuck with the
higher NBM guidance (tends to overdue winds). The EPS guidance
continuing to indicate moderate to high probs (40-100%) of gusts AOA
50 kts across the eastern MA coast. Further inland probs are low to
moderate (<10 to 40%) from eastern CT into RI and eastern portions
of central MA. The EPS also still showing low to moderate (10-60%)
probs of gusts AOA 64 kts across SE MA, Cape Ann and the waters.
Anticipate that High Wind Watches will be needed in later updates
for the land. Looks like there will be at least Storm Force gusts,
but may actually be a situation where we need Hurricane Force Wind
Watches in later updates. For context last time we needed to issue a
Hurricane Force Wind Watch (or Warning) was in March of 2018.