Damage In Tolland

Sleet/ snow mix . 33 .0 . It may never flip until tonight

Back to mainly rain . Just can’t get going Have to count on a couple inches tonight . 33.4

Snow and sleet mix. Actually quite a bit of sleet

Looks like not much precip gets to Maine in this

Flipping to snow here now

How far north does that get? Does it wash out ?

Winsted right? Seems to be right on track with what HRRR shows . Hoping that continues translating east /NE

That is good news !

Waterbury flipping to snow now

Do you see any evidence that it can become isothermal once the heavy stuff arrives ? There’s reports of sleet and snow in SW CT and SE NY according to Walt.

So basically if it’s not snowing by 8:00 AM it’s another MLK type deal? And nothing overnight/ Monday?

I don’t have a good feeling about this part 1 this morning

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... An upper level trough and coastal low will bring rain, snow, and mixed precipitation today into tonight. Radar currently shows precipitation starting to enter the region from the west initially as rain, but flipping to snow first for higher elevations above 500ft. Rain will then change over to snow for lower elevations excluding the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands where precip will remain as rain all day. The heaviest snowfall looks to be between 10am-2pm which is when the best moisture and lift will be present in the dendritic growth zone. After 2pm, a dry slot works in from the south cutting moisture to the dendritic growth zone. With the lighter precip rates, expecting snow to flip back to rain or a rain/snow mix for elevations under 500 feet while over 500 feet should remain as light snow. The latest model guidance continues to highlight the best chance for 6+ inches of snow across the highest elevations of 800-1000 feet. Confidence in snowfall amounts decrease significantly for lower elevations esspically below 500 feet due to surface temperatures slightly above freezing and mixed precipitation. Generally expecting snow totals of 3-6 inches across all of northern MA and extending south down the I-495 corridor and into northeastern CT where winter weather advisories are now in effect. Winter Weather Advisories have also been added for the CT River Valley in MA where 2-6 inches are possible. Winds begin to pick up out of the NE in the afternoon at 15-25mph. Highs top out in the low to mid 30s, with 40s near the coasts && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As the coastal low pulls away to the NE, cold northerly flow will allow for any areas with a rain/snow mix to change back over to all snow after midnight. Latest model guidance has increased snowfall totals for NE MA during this portion of the event with some stronger deformation zone snow bands forming overnight. Its not out of the question that 6 inches of snow could fall in Essex and Middlesex counties due to this. However, opted to stick with a Winter Weather Advisory for those counties due to low confidence in over 6 inches at this time. Winds continue to increase overnight due to a tightening pressure gradient with gusts of 20-30mph inland and 40- 50mph near the coasts. Overnight lows only drop into the upper 20s to low 30s.

Thanks for the detailed analysis and post John . As you well know living in a hilltown and especially on a hilltop , many times is not the same as 75% of the rest of the town . Last Feb’s extremely local icestorm was probably the biggest example in my area. Your area higher and in NW CT certainly is favored. 6-9” there seems fairly likely . This area is prone to mid level issues which is why I am erring 3-6” , but admittedly it’s a razor sharp line . The hope is these cold trends continue one more model cycle and we get our valley and S CT folks some good snows.

Take em’ up?

Just sittin’ there thumpin’?

Are you able to post them here?

Confusedsureweather?

Let the boy go . The more you engage the more he thinks he’s right

Poor TFlizz. When TAN is not in the mix he tries so hard SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... This will be a period of active weather. Unfortunately, the critical details still remain uncertain, and the margin for error is very small. Will be monitoring these details overnight into Sunday, and likely making further changes to the forecast as new information arrives.

You’d be incorrect . But it’s tight . That’s why we are leaning low at 3-6 “ with round 1

Some are saying thumping rain . So not sure

@weathafellaits isothermal so you can’t just look and assume rain

1k

Ray has Precip starting as rain tomorrow and continues . Hi res and GFS/ Euro has thump snow . Maybe they meet in the middle