Damage In Tolland

One massive icestorm after 6-8” of snow 

These melts are based on the gfs right? Just want to make sure we are following. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

12z RGEM doubling down....going even more amped than the 06z run. Has the sfc low NW of NYC at 12z Sunday.

Tossed.

So SNE does talk Reggie AWT

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

We're due for a weird evolution 

Why

Colder trends for next week already started . Not shocking 

Euro gonna bust on this. I’d bet 6z starts it back colder 

Dusting with very light snow falling 

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s really ridiculous.  I’m inclined to think it’s out to lunch on this event.  As OceanWx said it was off on heights in Canada.  The Euro isn’t ALWAYS great with northern stream features or with disturbances coming out of Canada.  I’ve been nervous about that late northern stream interaction now for 36 hours.  If the NAM continues getting colder today as this event gets inside 36-42 I’m probably tossing the Euro on this.  

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro was a bust on this. Cold presses always win 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Seems you're really stretching your definition of damage now.

I think right now the best chances for higher ice totals will be where Will was talking about yesterday. Near the coast could have the best combo of staying below freezing but near the warmth aloft. Forecast soundings from the NAM near HVN and GON show much more of an ice look, and the NAM is actually decent with low level thermal profiles.

GFS has them flipping to rain...

Gfs jacked up qpf too

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Where exactly? 

It just looks sleety with so much low level cold. Even the GFS that loves to be warm in the boundary layer is cold enough for sleet at BDL.

There will be ice, but unless things change significantly I don't see a widespread damaging ice signal.

Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm 

Euro / EPS still so warm aloft up to NH. Everything does show a flip back to snow Sunday afternoon/ night

Icestorm 

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How are all those ice storm calls coming along?

As of now. 100% accurate 

This is when the humans beat the models . There’s only a few that can look past models 

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I think Ryan said you will stay cold.

You missed his last post then 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You ain’t getting to 32

You and I and Ginx and Will know that.. but Ryan and other melters seem to not get it 

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The next two cycles are when the meltdowns happens as we tickle north...classic 24-48 hour N trend. Then we'll get the "inside 24 hour messenger SE slide" and end up back to where we were before all of that. 

The next 24-36 hours separates the men from the boys . You have the model huggers who think each run is the final outcome.. and then  you have the few who understand what can and can’t happen based on this setup . And they end up the victors when the others come back as models come back 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You dont want to look at snow maps, look away

0-2”? All ice?

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro went a hair N and a hair warmer on 18z.

Full on zr storm ?

Just now, weathafella said:

I think the sleet will save the pack.  The cutter as currently modeled doesn’t bring 50 dues and it is a short lived warmup.

And it may never cut . Lots of bagginess in isobars 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just saying..lol. I don't care about QPF, just like the subtle SE tick and helping to keep it below 32. Hoping for a few days of snow OTG before it melts next week. 

Melts? Lol

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Here's what I'm going with at 4

Let’s tear shit down!

Euro snow maps?? Lol

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

High pressure is sliding offshore...it's not an ideal setup for keeping it cold. There is some semblance trying to hang back to our north on the ensembles, but it is probably only a few members showing it. It needs a lot of work. 

Are you worried about losing pack ?

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This 12z Euro run is infuriating to winter enthusiasm... 

It's got this huge meridional flow structure and manages to turbid the cold toward spring or something...   I mean, it's like ECMWF, Inc...  parameterized the whole run with asshole variables from start to finish.

 haha

Don’t you think next weeks storm ends up colder vs these calls of torching cutter? Too much pressing cold and hP