Damage In Tolland

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gonna be tuff to see 40’s 

Or 30’s

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Interesting to note the cold funneling down the Hudson Valley. Lots of temps at freezing with dews in the mid teens.

Take em down to the coast 

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It's a pretty close call for a nasty ice storm for you up through ORH, I'm almost leaning towards it. Knock like 2C off the surface progs and there you go.

Just gonna have to see how it plays out. If Euro holds serve like it has for 4 days it might be go time. I can tell you one thing.. anyone thinking it gets above freezing within 10-20 miles of the coast are going to be shocked tomorrow when it’s in the 20’s - near 30 tomorrow morning 

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Here’s the thing, it’s not colder then the NAM in SNE.  They are virtually identical.

See Will post please 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The SPC HREF to me makes way more sense then any guidance. As far as temps goes. Maybe it’s wrong and this goes over BOS, but I like how it displays the srfc thermals. 

Can you fire it up here?

When the gfs is colder in thermals than the NAM.. you’d better pay attn 

2 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Trends are great in CT for anyone who ever wanted a skating rink in their yard. Flooding rain followed by a flash freeze. I always said I’d prefer a 50 degree rainstorm to a crushing ice storm...I guess I should be happy.

Don’t be surprised when even your area struggles to 32. Listen to Will . Surface ain’t warming away from water 

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. 

Mine dropped from 24 at 4:30 when I went running to 20 at 8:00 down to 16 now 

Tip trying to pretend he’s Sigmund Freud 

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s a virtual lock 

sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ...

Lol. Euro has not come north and warmed. Been consistent.  Sone of you guys have lost it. Stick with Will. He knows 

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Should this play out like we're seeing now:

Sensible weather wise, GFS did the best.  

NAM missed all over the place.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Euro wins the prize being the most consistent in it's being wrong.

Seems voodoo ish

You can envision Euro tucking colder at 12z today . It’ll be classic euro as it takes the lead and all the weenies that jumped off the bus jump back on. That high and cold air not gonna be denied 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAM says trend is not your friend, get up at 3 am to look at your snow before it all washes away 

When It goes 100 miles SE at 18 and 00z.. we’ll know why 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

3.61 qpf here, wagons north even at the surface.  Kevs ice storm now in climo favored areas of Mass NH

You know drill . Toss it 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. 

If you had to forecast it.. how far north and west does 32 get?

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like epic ice for the interior of NAM is right aloft. 

Its gonna be way too warm at the sfc though. 

Crushed 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's exactly what will happen in this storm. The very low Arctic dews are going to be advecting south during the event. This is where I think models are the worst. They put too much emphasis on latent heat in that scenario and not enough on advection of dews. 

So would you say the 32 isotherm never makes it north of say Hull- MMU- GON?

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Interesting to see how cold the HREF is at 2m lol

How good has that performed in your experience?

This really becomes more of a coastal 

Scoots pointed out to me that we are advercting in cold and lower dews during storm.. that’s exactjy what happened in 08 ORH storm . That’s why you take the under on 2m temps . Models had that one milder at 2m too 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems like the ice threat could be nasty close to BOS. Interior SW burbs to RI and even Kevin could be in for quite the icing event. It may be narrow, but sort of near and south of the 925 WF on NAM and closer to other side of CF. 

I think this is the one we’ve been waiting for in CT/ RI

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I still think this ends up cooler at the sfc, but yeah, that’s why it’s useless obsessing over details at d8.

Yeah It’s staying below 32 almost down to w 2/3 of CT coast 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-4 for BOS/here. Down half of what I thought. Harvey probably not liking the 6-12. Feel like we could see some nasty ice west of me and into Nw RI and CT.

Euro really really did well on the mid and upper levels. Once I saw that 5/6/7 runs in a row..you had a feeling more ice less snow

Well.. we got the Scooter melt . Maybe we get one Feb storm?

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Deep winter continues with flooding rains next week.

To Maine’s?