Part of my rationale on how I came up with Jan 20 was the SE ridge and the pig. It wasn’t simply a WAG. When I saw modeling back in early Dec start hinting at both, I deduced we would in essence lose a month. The SE ridge in this era always tends to overamplify so if you see any semblance of one on the ensembles , it’s likely going to flex and ridge more than that smoothed out mean. And I know the pig was temporary, but even when it lifts out, it still has downstream ramifications for quite some time until you can flush the PAC zonal puke. So that’s basically how I came up with that date. Hopefully it actually works out