Damage In Tolland

Bobby had it raining for all except NNE

Yup. We all know the FV3 thermals issues. This is a snow event as depicted . Possibly even to coast at some point

That’s what we did . It’s snow regardless of thermals

Man that FV3 run would flatten whole forests in interior SNE

These East inflow events tend to be prolific. Just need to keep seasonal trend of stronger and colder HP in Quebec . So far every storm we’ve seen that this winter and thus far it’s done that on modeling with this one. Long week of tracking

Totally . But the EPS would snap every tree and deck from KMOO to KORH and west

Do you see similarities to Dec 92?

CNE/ SNE is favored in this. Especially hilly terrain. It keeps digging . Don’t discount us

My top 3. Just pounder in interior and especially elevated areas. Heavy heavy wet snow and strong damaging winds. We had 16-18” around here . ORH had 36”. Power was out for days

This could be a Dec 92

To me, this snows from NYC north. NYC being on the southern fringe of accumulation . Pretty strong signals for that scenario 6-7 days out

Days and days and days

You live below sea level in a concrete jungle. He lives at 2200’ in VT with nothing but trees and bodies. Big difference

Empty Rocking chairs Rocking?

Ef4 wedge?

Maybe we’ll get the long awaited Maple Mauler

That’s a nice look EPS. Qpf not gonna be a problem

Just an op run. As WD mentioned .. it’s qpf loaded . See what EPS shows. This isn’t a suppression pattern

Walt mentioned he uses the GGEM . That is a huge positive

Walt!! Thanks so much for the detailed post! We miss your expertise up in SNE and all of us learned so much from you. There was nothing like a WD AFD prior to snowstorms. Please drop in more often.

If Walt is watching it for NJ.. that definitely should perk your attention

I’ve been calling for it since issued winter forecast late Oct. What may bust is it comes in sooner and spring just hits in early Feb. TBD Here is what I put out back in Oct Quick thoughts on winter: I’ve been getting a lot of questions on the upcoming winter , so will just lay out thoughts . Overall it looks to be a fairly normal winter snowfall and temp wise. For example, the Tolland area averages about 60” of snow per year. I think we will fall somewhere in the 55-65” range. It doesn’t appear like it will be overly snowy with above normal snowfall. Nor does it appear that we’ll have a terrible winter with very little snow. There will be a fairly sharp gradient this year of haves vs have nots. I would guess that area is the NYC to south coast area. Near and south of that line may not see that much snow . As you head farther north that should steadily increase . Temps are likely to average a bit above normal . We’ll have our share of arctic outbreaks, but there should also be times of milder weather . There may also be higher than normal potential of a significant icestorm this year . I could see quite a few icing events happening , especially earlier in the season. Lastly , I think this year we see the trends of recent years where winter starts late and ends late reverse. I think it starts late Nov/early Dec and ends late Feb or early March . December for a change could be fairly wintry , especially if we see a -NAO kick in as long range guidance is picking up on. January may end up as the “easiest going” month of the winter before February sees another good wintry month set in. If it goes according to plan , spring comes in early -mid March instead of May like recent years. That’s pretty much my thought process , laying it out there. Trying to predict the future is never easy . Hopefully the flakes fly early and often !!

Gonna be tough to pull another 35” here to get normal snowfall of 58-60” . Especially with early spring hitting this year late Feb. Gonna need one larger 12+ to have a chance and that doesn’t seem likely

It’s all we’ve got. These Q highs have trended stronger and colder all winter as we move closer . This likely is same