Damage In Tolland

Of course. This has been ENE summer for rain and severe. Meanwhile

Is this for ORH southeast? Not CT

I missed everything other than a 2 minute shower

Nonstop loud thunder since about 2:00 Buddy in SE Tolland had pea to marbles

Nothing here. Missed by a couple miles

Just all kinds of thunder for hours from that training area SSE of here. Look at the CG strikes

Look SW. couple more dumpers heading in

Crushed with training coming there. Droughtstein packed up there and heading WSW on 90 to CT

Nice!

Inches of rain now for @CoastalWx there in S Wey. Enjoy

Enjoy the big outbreak out East. Take a few trees down for those on us in C and western areas who miss out again

Drought Stein is back

I guess my question is .. if the front comes from the NW but the cyclonic flow around the high initially is out of the NE.. is that really a door? Maybe it’s semantics

Isn’t the cold front moving NW to SE? Doors typically move NE to Sw right? I’m sure Wednesday may stay under 80, but as GYX noted on morning AFD there’s not much cool air to the NE. More importantly I don’t see dews falling below 60 in SNE. Do you?

Low Levels sure. Overall upper air is from west. Not really a door . But it will keep it in the low - mid 80’s with dews 60-65 for a day or two agree

Except flow is NW lol

Threat is mainly west of 95

HREF got a bit wilder overnight , so Legro May be a little wild. But until we see Wiz post, this threat is on thin ice

Well maybe Loconto went wild LWW? Legro says nada . It’s SNE , so he’s probably right

22

This may go down asTop 3 Perhaps Top ever .Time will tell . So far though.. writing seems to be on the wall

Yeah

90 For me it’s been a dream. Maximized dews for weeks with none below 60 since sometime in June . And that looks to continue unabated

Nice have the 3k Nam on board . Probably a spin or two pike region to 84 On the severe-storm potential, much of Southern New England is highlighted in a Marginal Risk for severe. Mid-level lapse rates look fairly weak and is a limitation. Progged CAPEs are on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg, with bulk shear around 35-40 kt. SPC`s SREF Craven-Brooks severe index parameter highlighting solid probabilities for values at or over 10,000 units, which can favor strong/severe storms. The 12z HREF continues to show some 2-5 km Updraft Helicity swaths as well, though mainly across central and eastern MA. Though the primary severe threat would be from strong to locally damaging straight line winds, if a weak surface wave low can lead to locally backed surface winds it could yield a very low-prob tornado risk but the threat is conditioned upon that occurring. The NAM-3 km hints at this more than other models with 0-1 km shear of 20 kt/0-1 km SRH 100-150 units in parts of the interior.

Wiz must have spent another day in the hot tub with his jacket and hood on . Big potential in SNE tomorrow And it`s in the afternoon when a severe/hydro threat should start to evolve and escalate, as improving wind fields leading to bulk shear values rising to 35-40 kt, moderate convective instability and forcing with the stronger upper disturbance should result in scattered to numerous showers and storms along the frontal boundary. This is indicated by the majority of the convective-allowing model members comprising the HREF. While individual models vary on the timing, it appears that thunderstorms may start to percolate as soon as 1 PM, but the better chances lie after 2-3 PM, with greater numbers of storms then progressing eastward towards the coast into the evening rush hour. The largest uncertainties to the forecast hinge on the location of the frontal zone, how quickly it progresses eastward, and while early-day rains don`t look to be as widespread as the GFS paints it to be, the extent to which the airmass can destabilize in the wake of the early showers is a question mark. Exactly where the SW-NE oriented front sets up is uncertain, but it appears to align itself somewhere from I-84 to I-495/I-93 corridor or just west of that line. In some of the NAM-based guidance, a weak low/mesolow ripples along the front as storms begin to fire. If that materializes it would serve to slow the front down further, but also back surface to low-level winds slightly leading to somewhat longer lower-level hodographs.