dan11295

HRRR has this initial batch then dries things up a bit until the main rain shield starts to push in later tonight.

6Z NAM and GFS both show 6"+ for SE MA. As said above EURO is more pedestrian.

NHC must have updated their software, I remember in the past they were unable to plot forecast points east of the Prime Meridian. Prop-tropical cyclones affecting UK in particular is that not uncommon. Ophelia did just a couple of years ago (only 6-12 hours after being declared post-tropical actually).

There are no records of strong major hurricanes at Lorenzo's location in the satellite era as far as I know.Of course there may have been some prior to the satellite era, but will probably never know how strong they may have been. For example if the 1935 Labor Day hurricane went south of Key West and didn't hit land at that intensity, there is probably no way it would be re-analyzed at that intensity/pressure. It is the only storm in the pre-satellite era listed as having a pressure of <910 mb.

As far as Freeport, I think you will find most of the damage there will be from surge. Western part of the city never got into the eye wall and it was weakening some before it got there.

When assessing damage, important to distinguish between surge and wind damage (there was a lot of both here) on Abacos. The building Josh was in was a brick school which was basically demolished with a few partial walls standing. No way Josh uses a building in a category 5 for shelter unless he feels its a strong structure. Also saw a video from someone in a car driving past what was clearly catastrophic wind damage. From aerials alone though it can be hard to distinguish though, especially since most stuff is low lying there.

I know Josh has been in many intense Hurricanes. Has he ever been in the eyewall of something this intense? He was not the in strongest winds of Michael, Patricia was a weakening 4, Haiyan was probably a 4 by the time it got to Tacloban City. I know Michael last year was the lower pressure he has actually recorded.

Certainly a bit of a clown solution on 12Z GFS. Crazy to look at but not worth seriously talking about atm.

Looking at the outages, most of this damage is probably straight line wind. 60%+ of Dennis, Harwich, Chatham is out but also fair amount in places like Orleans which was probably north or any potential touchdown.

Probably some significant straight line wind damage as well. Chatham Police is also reporting several impassable roadways.

Still reporting, pressure dropped 1.3 mb in 10 minutes to 966 mb. Wind still NE

Without Guam radar, hard to tell how much of the eyewall Saipan is likely to get, Looks like Tinian is likely to have the eye go party over it.

Wonder much longer Saipan will continue to report obs. They are now Sustained NE 67 G 85 mph with pressure 978 mb

UK and EURO both hit same areas near ILM with heaviest rainfall, GFS is a bit northeast. EURO does not have the crazy totals that the GFS and UK have. Would take some very persistent traning with heavy bands to get what the UK/GFS are implying. But that stuff is somewhat storm structure dependent.

155k without power now. As said above I am sure a lot of weakened trees/branches are coming down

I think we can easily knock 3-4" off accumulations in SE Mass/Cape. Even here in Metrowest the roads are still wet. Looking at 5 am obs pretty much everyone is reporting snow, even ACK, but many temps are still above freezing making it tough to accumulate

No question the long duration aspect of this storm is now somewhat in doubt. I honestly do not think anyone outside of SE MA or where the fronto band stalls out is going to get >24". It is obvious at this point where things are trending.

18z NAM had >0.25" liquid over all of metro NYC between 0z-3z. I can't see that happening with the current radar presentation.

Will have to see of any other models also close it of farther SW, which would cut QPF a bit in SNE.

Whats's the deal with the 4 km NAM shafting the Berks? wouldn't it take a shift east for that to happen? Also, not really buying any models that shaft SE burbs of Boston. That is historically a sweet spot plus we are already seeing OES echos into that area (even if they are not yet reaching the ground).

I know they are moving it to another location, mainly because they realised that if the tornado was further south, If could have possibly hit both St. John's and Freeman (the other regional hospital in the area) at the same time.

No offense but I do not think Springfield tornado should compared to those other two events. It was a major event for this area but there is no comparision to the loss of life and degree of destructive that occurred.

Read this morning that another person has died due to injuries. Sad testament to the violent nature of this event. Have not read any estimates as to how many are still hospitalized though.

Unfortunately the death toll in Joplin may rise more due to those who are critically injured. We had two additional fatalites from the 4/27 storm in Tuscaloosa within the past week. One was a woman whose child died in the storm. She was admitted to the ICU and never recovered. The other was an elderly man who contracted pneumonia after getting wet in the storm.

As I listen to more and more interviews with regards to how people fared in commercial structures, if is more and more clear that buildings with freezers/coolers or similar structures within the building provided a generally effective means of shelter. CNN had an interviews with people in the Dillon's who it appears all survived by getting the the cooler. Similar story in the Pizza Hut, except for an employee who perished trying to keep the door closed from the outside. As we know sadly those in the "big box" stores did not far so well. Lack of addtiional enclosure combined with the larger concentration of people were likely both contributing factors.