dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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If without considering shear, shelf temps in the northern GOM are barely 26C. Even if it becomes a major, the water temps would make a major at landfall very unlikely. 12z intensity guidance has a weakening cat 1 at landfall. Hurricane Lili might be a possible Analog to Delta in this regard.
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Current NHC track mostly avoids the cold eddy in the Central Gulf and minimizes travel time over cooler water prior to any Gulf Coast landfall. Further east=weaker due to to Cuba interaction and lower SST/heat content. Delta will also be moving much faster than Sally. But the cooler shelf waters should make any landfall stronger than NHC forecast unlikely, plus it will likely be starting to weaken before landfall, even before considering any shear.
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Short term question is interaction with the Yucatan which would obviously hinder development. Longer term good chance this gets sheared apart in the Gulf. Most models just kill it once it gets into the GOM with just the low level remnant circulation moving west.
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In the short term, is is apparent that nationwide hospitalization numbers have stopped falling and are now up slightly week over week. Hospitalizations are now close to the previous low point back in June, which implies we are probably catching more cases ( I haven't read of any evidence the virus is weakening yet). What actually happens in the next few months depends on many variables, including human behavior, percentage of the population with some immunity, and potential seasonal influences (i.e. temperature, humidity, maybe body Vitamin D levels). Regarding potential seasonal effects it is important to remember that the exact mechanism behind flu seasons are not settled science, so a lot of worries about the fall/winter are based on historical patterns of infection from influenza and common cold coronaviruses.
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Houston is just a magnet for heavy rain from tropical systems. The 10-12" max rainfall in the last 18 hours just happens to be in SW Harris County.
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Obviously can't be sure, but usually once you start getting cold fronts into the Gulf it usually means the end of the season there.
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Looks like we finally have a bit of a quiet period coming up, thankfully. MDR season might be about over. Probably have an uptick in activity early October, my guess is the Gulf might be about done for the year (hopefully).
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Am guessing the expectation is drier air will cut down on the precip?
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Really need a backup list of names that is used in this case. Some of the later Greek letters sound a lot alike also, Zeta, Eta, Theta, would be rather confusing if those storms were active at the same time. When 2005 happened, people assumed having that many storms would not repeated any time in the near future.
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Ophelia went extratropical 9-12 hours before hitting Ireland. Vince in 2005 was downgraded to a TD just before landfall in Spain.
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I agree technically its worthy of classification, just figured they would add this as unnamed STS post-season
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Shocked they bothered naming this....literally about to make landfall
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Generally it seems this will stay weak, Biggest concern would be stalling near a populated area on the TX coast.
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SST's in the Mediterranean Sea in that area are about 28C. Certainly warm enough to support a TC. Some of these type of stormed have formed in the winter months, with lower SST's than usually required for Tropical Cyclones. In many ways like 2005's Hurricane Epsilon, with colder temps along likely allowing for their formation. These storms (like Epsilon) often show eye features at lower wind speeds than seen in deeper warm core systems.
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By wind speed yes, by pressure no (Katrina was 920 mb at landfall).
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Odds we go into Greek letters this year? Assuming we get the Rene shortly that leaves only 4 names left.
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Yes, There was a backlog of cases which resulted in a data dump.
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Technically 156+ is a 5, but its basically semantics
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Best hope is the core goes somewhere relatively unpopulated, like between Port O'Connor and Freeport. Models have been too far the right in the short term last few runs
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Obviously if Josephine forms now still we will still be ahead of 2005 pace wise. Next storm in 2005 was named on Aug. 24 (We know what storm that was). I agree we did have many short lived weak TS's so far. 2005 already had a Cat 5 (Emily) at this point. So ACE wide 2020 is behind 2005.
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Was looking at pics from Cedar Rapids area, some significant structural damage from wind, vehicles blown over. Report from Marshalltown, IA of 100 cars with windows blown out.
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I do say the radar presentation looks the best it has in a while, plus recon appears to show a pressure fall.
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11 am NHC Discussion mentions baro enhancement keeping the storm from weakening too fast, even though the track actually shifted a tad west and is now basically entirely inland after landfall Current westerly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt is expected to decrease somewhat during the next 12 h and also become more southwesterly, which will be in better alignment with Isaias' forward motion vector. The decrease in the shear should result in less tilt to the cyclone, allowing Isaias to strengthen and regain hurricane status just before making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.
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E. CT/RI E+SE Mass gets some good gusty winds, particularly coastal areas but nothing too crazy IMHO.
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How far East can this go? Is a miss to the SE still a real option? Then there is the issue of how strong. This storm is going to remain sheared and will probably be undergoing ET transition are our latitude.
