dan11295

In terms of severity, Covid is not in the same league as Spanish Flu, primarily due to the W-shaped mortality curve and higher observed mortality rates mentioned above. Besides these facts, its hard to make estimates how the numbers for both pandemics would be different if Covid was in 1918 and Spanish Flu occurred now. In general, populations are older now with more of the comorbidities that make them more vulnerable to Covid, but medical care has much advanced since 1918.

Sounds like the winds on the west side of Delta over performed a bit. extreme SE TX had many reports of 80-90+ gusts

Appears from power outage map the impacts were felt over a fairly broad area, even if obviously less severe than Laura. 30% of East BR Parish has no power, so does 30% of Jefferson County in Texas.

Lake Charles reported a 95 mph wind gust apparently about an hour ago. As far as the shape, the shear certainly did a number on it.

I wonder how well all that plywood will hold up on the Capital One Building in Lake Charles. As mentioned above, you have a lot of compromised structures in that area. This is very similar to the Frances/Jeanne situation in Florida, two different hurricanes making landfall in almost the same spot.

Which is a good thing, SW LA has already had 1 major hurricane this year, they certainly didn't need another. As it is this is very disruptive to anyone in that area trying to recover from Laura.

This wasn't a cat 3 at 10 am. Core will be coming ashore in 2-3 hours. 963 mb 110 mph at 1 pm. Still think that is generous.

What kind of winds can blue roofs withstand? Many damaged homes in the Lake Charles area have them at the moment. 47 mph gust at LCH last hour. 4-5' surge currently in SW LA. You see the effects of the dry air and shear eroding the core. I think a high Cat 1 in reality at landfall is most likely. Northern eyewall is ~4-5 hours from land maybe. Last recon was 966 mb w/25 kt wind, so 963-964 mb. SFMR would support 80-85 kt

sustained TS winds at Galveston last hour. As has been stated before, probably more of a surge threat ultimately, though you will have a lot of power outages, TS/Cat 1 type damage from large wind field. Doubt you get any sustained Hurricane winds reported on land with weakening storm and no stations at landfall point.

Seems like it is going a bit west of track? Yet to start moving east of north per radar. That turn should be occurring very shortly.

Pressure is already up to 960mb with luck we can get even more weakening than forecast prior to landfall. Wont matter too much for surge but would mitigate some of the wind obviously.

This will be your "classic" half-a-cane at landfall for sure. Winds don't get to the surface as well in weakening storms, so you probably won't see the type of structural damage you saw with Sally. Also going to be very few populated areas near the immediate landfall point, unlike with Sally.

Seems to really be an outlier with regards to intensity. 6z HMON gets down to 950mb with a 960 mb landfall 6z HWRF also gets down to 950mb with 955mb landfall. Realistically only has ~18 hours of favorable conditions left for intensification ~1mb/hr would get you to 950mb but that is probably pushing it as core has yet to fully consolidate.

Almost none of the 12z intensity guidance makes it a major again. Pressure may drop some before it weakens a bit before landfall, but storm is expanding in size so you will still have a significant surge impacts as you said plus broad area of wind impacts. On radar this will almost certainly have the "half cane" look often associated with north Gulf landfalls. Models have been shown dry air eroding the south side prior to landfall. Btw, for radars we will have to rely on Houston long range and then Fort Polk as LCH radar is still out.

Delta has about 24 hours left to strengthen. Current storm structure with expanding wind field does make RI likely IMHO. Will likely be a weakening Cat 2 on landfall which should limit the potential for major structural damage. Also, some of the surge will be areas affected by Laura, so a saving grace there is some of the more vulnerable structures are already gone. That being said, the large wind field will still bring significant impacts. Also, still plenty of debris around the Lake Charles area, with many tarps on roofs.

8 ASOS stations in MA verified High Wind/SVR criteria, impressive

Outages: 240k MA 210k NY 41k RI 25k CT For MA that number is comparable to the outages in Isaias. With no pre-staging of power crews some people might be without power for a few days. Statewide a higher end t-storm event for sure. Very rare to get a line that impacts that much of the state.

Intensity guidance (yeah I know it hasn't done particularly good with Delta) brings it to 100-105kt before it starts to weaken prior to ~90 kt landfall. I still think 85-95 kt will be final landfall intensity. regardless of how much it strengthens in the short term. Large wind field will be a surge problem and puts Lafayette a bit under the gun as far as wind, although they are inland a bit with a weakening storm to mitigate the effects some. Regardless, Louisiana is still dealing with effects of Laura and they certainly don't need another storm.

Need to see if/when the westward model trend stops. Few more ticks west Delta will be more of an issue for Lake Charles than Lafayette.

12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though.

Delta continues to exhibit extremely strong convection over land. Looks to be halfway across now.

Yucatan got a break with the weakening yesterday afternoon. Shows that systems with small cores are prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity. Center should only be over land for 4-6 hours it appears, depending on exact track. Still unclear how much re-strengthening will occur in the Gulf, as we know how unreliable intensity forecasts can be. Models still pretty set on Delta to be weakening on landfall due to shear + cooler shelf waters, which is very reasonable.

Last two model runs shifted Mexico landfall a bit south. Greater threat of direct eyewall impacts may be Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen. Further South would also mean more time over land before it gets into the Gulf.

only 18-20 hrs before it hits land. not enough time for ERC I don't think.

Eye is very small so area of strongest winds will be small. No question they are at high risk of a direct hit given track seems clustered with little variance until Yucatan landfall. NHC now calling for 140 mph at Mexico landfall.