dan11295
-
Posts
3,141 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by dan11295
-
Farther inland, cities like Valdosta could get a pretty good hit also.
-
Definitely will not be weakening upon landfall. As has been stated by the NHC and others, Helene will have major inland wind impacts. Combination of strengthening large storm and rapid movement. EDIT: That dropsonde might justify an upgrade to 120 kts.
-
Looks like there might be a bit of a lull in precip for a bit after this heavy batch goes through. Maybe this will allow some of the smaller streams to go down a bit for a while.
-
Looks like from radar W eyewall may have opening up a bit, if only temporarily. That said satellite presentation continues to improve,
-
5 pm NHC track looks like it was shifted east at landfall, would make a big difference for TLH.
-
Latest IR showing deep convection surrounding the core and the storm becoming more symmetrical. Implies Helene is continining to strengthen
-
Strength wise, the dry air/asymmetric structure may very help keep Helene in check until landfall. Obviously a major at landfall is still quite possible. Basically been steady state right now as a result for last 4-5 hours. EDIT couple post just above me basically said the same thing.
-
Right now the core isn't tight enough and with an eyewall open to the SW, any intensification will be slow. Leaning toward low 950's minimal cat 3 at landfall, those obviously still with very significant impacts over a broad area.
-
Latest extrap pressures still in 962 mb range been steady state pressure wise past few hours.
-
Numerous 40-45 mph gusts along west coast of Florida from Naples-Tampa within the last hour, just to give you an idea of the wind field.
-
VDM supports 963 mb,, though the 8 am advisory is 960 mb. brief opening of the W eyewall may have halted intensification temporarily.
-
The HAFS has been too aggressive with intensification of Helene in general so maybe getting a bit closer to reality.
-
Helene has all the ingredients for significant wind impacts far inland. Large wind field, fast forward motion, and potentially intensifying until landfall.
-
Also getting cold cloud tops almost surrounding the CDO now. Clearly at least steadily strengthening now.
-
From La Bajada radar you can tell the environment around the core is moistening and appears to be in process of working out any remaining dry air from the circulation.
-
Once the core gets a bit further away from the Yucatan and cycles out any dry air at least steady intensification will likely commence.
-
Also, significant inland flooding threat for southern apps in particular due to already saturated soils/pre-event and orographic lifting. 6z GFS showing 10-15" of rain over NE GA/W NC.
-
Significant interaction with the Yucatan is definitely possible here. Obviously that would result in a weaker system in the gulf. Just clipping the tip will have minimal impact, 6+ hours over land is another matter.
-
IR still looks a bit disorganized, but some banding is showing up on Cayman radar under the northern convection.
-
I wonder if the current board nature of the system will stop it from organizing too quickly. Also until the shear actually drops over the system its not doing to get going. Radar looks less impressive than a few hours ago.
-
As mentioned above, strong typhoon landfalls in that area are basically unheard of. Usually they only get weak storms that have been disrupted by significant land interaction, etc.
-
Heavier showers starting to move back into the hardest hit areas.
-
Debby continues to show cold cloud tops firing over the core although being inland. Can also see the fetch of heavy rain off the Atlantic about to slam into the South Carolina coast.
-
Sarasota area has been getting hammered by that feeder band all night. Radar estimates of 15"+ with training continuing. Seeing PWS at Siesta Key with over 18" past 2 days. Looks like landfall now.
-
This looks like a hurricane on radar now.
