dan11295

Some per capita case comparisons to EU Countries: U.S. 7-day case average is 148,000 cases/day or 448/million. UK: 353/million Spain: 415/million (late October peak) France: Approx. caseload on Oct. 23, 5 days before lockdown announced Italy: Approx. caseload on Nov. 2, 2 days before lockdown announced.

Washington, Oregon, New Mexico have all shut indoor dining statewide along with some other businesses. They are by far the most aggressive with their actions so far. Of course they only account for less than 3% of the national caseload right now.

Quite possible on Friday. At some point we will hit a wall on testing numbers due to lab capabilities. Some places are already starting to limit testing of asymptotic people unless they have been exposed to a confirmed positive etc.

These Governors are in a bind. With no Federal support shutting businesses will result in many going under (many already have). No one wants to try to order people to stay home for Thanksgiving, even the ones who would otherwise consider it politically palatable. Also you have two states in the Lakes Region (Wisconsin & Michigan) those governors are essentially blocked from shutting anything down due to court rulings.

EDIT 175k and counting.....

The Church stuff is all about Freedom of Religion. Unfortunately that clashes with the know fact that churches are a known common place of spread.

Cases have been ramping up nationwide since the middle of October. Events like Halloween and those celebrations are just potential aggravating factors

Clear trend right now is for state/local governments to gradually pull back on indoor dining/in person schooling add mask mandates when not present and issue "advisories" which have no legal force to try to encourage people to limit their contacts with others. Question is what percentage of people are going to change their behavior based on these "recommendations?" Many people just aren't going to listen.

PA cases really starting to ramp up, over 6k today (although 500 of that was backlog from Philly).

Interesting the interior Southeast has had lowest overall Rt. I am guessing that's due to less indoor gatherings compared to other states which have experienced cooler weather already. But clearly temperature isn't everything. Southern California (until last 2-3 day), Arizona & Florida are rising again, and haven't experienced cold weather. Also MS, GA have rising hospital/case numbers now so they are clearly have Rt>1.0 now too.

How long is average time between exposure and cases being reported? My guess is 10-14 days. So next 2-3 days would be that time frame

When was the last time there was 3 active TC's in November?

Illinois just passed their Spring hospitalization peak today as well, and they were significantly impacted then.

I don't think grocery stores are a significant transmission area, assuming everyone is wearing masks. You are only in there for a limited period of time. Longer time inside=higher potential viral load. With a dine in restaurant you are in there longer and you have to talk off your mask to eat. Both increase exposure.

Ugh those are April peak type numbers. Hospitalized +300 in Illinois. Jeez. They have now surpassed their April Hospitalization peak.The entire region is in trouble. 5000 new cases in Indiana today as well.

The cases being reported right now are from exposure 8-10 days ago at least, which was before the warm up in the central/eastern US. Wont be for another week to see if the 5-6 warmer days will reduce transmission rates some (hopefully). While certainly the cooler weather is the second half of October has driven more people indoors and might explain the Upper Midwest spiking first, it doesn't explain everything. Cases/hospitalizations have started going back up in places that haven't gotten cold, like Southern California and Florida. Also the OH Valley spikes were initiated in first half of October, when temps weren't much cooler than this past week (60s-70s).

Seems like the go-to measure in most states in the 10 person indoor gathering limit and shutting restaurants at 10 pm. CT, MA & RI have that here in the Northeast. Not sure how effective these measures will be. Seeing a lot of pressure on hospitals now especially in the Plains. Current cases/pop: US 375/million, UK 337/million (on plateau), Spain 374/million (on plateau) France: 715/million (probably on plateau now, they have had issues with delayed test data) Italy 557/million (still spiking) Germany 218/million (on plateau). UK current death rate is ~1750/day for U.S. population, For Spain is ~1950/day (and their time lagged CFR's are close to the U.S.). IMHO this is highly likely where we heading in about 3 weeks.

Masks are not going to protect you 100%, especially if you are in close contact with someone indoors for hours with poor ventilation. Even in that situation they can reduce viral load though,

Illinois is rapidly approaching their April hospitalization peak (5036). They are now at 4742 (+1178 last 7 days). Most other states in the region are also seeing rapid spikes in hospitalizations. Very few states in US not with increasing hospitalizations. Nationwide hospital numbers 61,964 (+2690). Most summer spike hot spots in the south are now trending up again. Suggests that while generally cooler weather driving people indoors may have put "fuel on the fire" in some areas esp. in north, that is not only case driver. . (Note: much of US has seen abnormally warm temps past week wonder if that helps drop the transmission rate some. With sun setting early w/cooler evening temps, people are still going to be driven indoors in evening. This combined with high levels of community spread already may limit any benefit. Region is going back to normal temps in a couple of days.)

At least Theta isn't a U.S. threat. Having Eta and Theta active at the same time is confusing enough as it is.

Yeah 97L probably gets named today. Gotta watch the Caribbean again too.

Many of them are becoming very burned out from working excessive hours plus stress etc. The ICU patients in particular require constant care w/multiple workers while in full PPE etc.

Numbers are already up 25k+ week on week...... Obviously the summer spike came to an abrupt plateau in the middle in July, With such a broad nationwide spike and no real mitigation yet don't know how this happens here very soon. Our current avg cases/per capita is about equal to the UK right now. (both countries are probably catching similar percent of causes as the 21-day time lagged CFR numbers are similar for both countries (1.7% for the U.S. and 2.0% for the UK) The difference is they have gone back into lockdown and have plateaued in cases. We are basically trying to do what Russia is trying to do right now which is avoid shutting things back down.

Keys could get a landfalling hurricane here..lol Would think they have to issue a Hurricane warning for the Keys with those obs. Also if Eta recurves back into FL will it just a TS falling apart? This is November...

URNT15 KWBC 081419 NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 11 20201108 141000 2252N 07848W 8430 01466 9968 +183 +164 134027 029 039 000 00 141030 2251N 07846W 8430 01464 9966 +184 +164 140028 029 040 000 00 141100 2251N 07845W 8428 01466 9960 +194 +161 142033 034 039 000 00 141130 2250N 07843W 8430 01462 9958 +196 +159 146033 035 040 000 00 141200 2250N 07841W 8431 01460 9958 +193 +167 144035 036 044 000 00 141230 2249N 07839W 8431 01458 9959 +188 +170 151034 036 045 000 00 141300 2249N 07838W 8431 01460 9962 +185 +171 159038 039 047 000 00 141330 2248N 07836W 8432 01462 9964 +186 +169 169038 039 047 000 00 141400 2247N 07834W 8428 01471 9969 +185 +167 169040 040 048 000 00 141430 2247N 07832W 8428 01474 9971 +187 +168 170040 041 049 000 00 141500 2246N 07830W 8426 01477 9978 +178 +168 173041 042 049 000 00 141530 2246N 07828W 8432 01470 9983 +170 //// 178046 048 052 001 01 141600 2245N 07827W 8424 01479 9985 +170 //// 181047 049 052 001 01 141630 2245N 07825W 8431 01481 9988 +171 //// 184047 049 053 001 01 141700 2244N 07823W 8416 01495 9992 +169 //// 182052 054 054 002 01 141730 2243N 07821W 8417 01494 9995 +163 //// 182056 061 055 009 01 141800 2243N 07819W 8429 01485 0004 +151 //// 180066 069 057 008 01 141830 2242N 07818W 8417 01499 0008 +153 //// 180063 064 059 003 01 141900 2242N 07816W 8418 01500 0010 +162 //// 178065 070 057 003 01 141930 2241N 07814W 8432 01495 0012 +167 +161 188066 070 057 004 00 996 mb extrap 70 kt fl 59 kt SFMR. Weird because NHC had it at 50 kt before crossing Cuba. Also looks like 12z model output came N some.