dan11295

Won't happen, some states may get as aggressive as New Mexico but most wont I do not think. Ugh at the Illinois number. So much for the drop yesterday.

https://mtstandard.com/news/local/as-virus-cases-flood-system-b-sb-says-stay-home-dont-get-tested/article_8ba0af74-2207-528c-a787-30658e2e8cbe.html#tracking-source=home-top-story A few places are now telling people with mild symptoms not to get tested or not giving tests to those without symptoms unless there is contact with a confirmed positive. Issues with capacity/staffing at hospitals are showing up in many states now. System is getting strained.

Also, just show you the virus is pretty much everywhere, Loving County, TX reported their first case today. The county has 134 people.

Over 3000 of that is in El Paso (1100) and Dallas/Fort Worth. (2000) metros

Texas is back to up almost 8000 hospitalized (their peak in summer was almost 11,000). But they have same 7-day case average as their summer peak.

I have been reading about the testing issues, which is another reason I expect case growth many slow. Which makes it more important to watch positivity rates and hospitalizations. Been seeing multiple reports about the major stress/overwork, etc. among health care workers as well. People just focus on the deaths. But all these hospitalizations are really taking their toll on HC workers and patients. These patients often have long hospital stays where they require constant care from multiple nurses/staff working long hours in full PPE. Plus the effects of seeing patients die alone on a consistent basis. This is one fact has seems to get lost on people who push the "it only kills those in nursing homes" line.

May be a factor, of course some states are seeing increases without cold weather, see the 8,000 out of Florida. It may provide some short term mitigation by keeping people outside more. Also it was warm here in the northeast too, and everything is still rising here.

With the Governors handcuffed with regards to being able to due any mitigation they are really not in a good place.

I am starting to think we are getting close to our peak average close load. There is unfortunately likely to be a spike from Thanksgiving. But then restriction put into place but some states should begin to have an effect. I think the 7-day average stays below 175k (we are at 160k now). May be a long-ish plateau as some states may resist restrictions longer. I also think (hopefully) we never see a 200k day.

Looks like their numbers may be stabilizing. Would be a good sign.

I imagine we might be coming close to testing capacity limits. Labs can only process so many tests. the Wisconsin dashboard shows approximate testing capacity and shows last week they were bumping against the limit, although it also shows capacity being expanded. A quick google search also shows stories about wait times getting longer for testing in many states.

By using Covid Tracking Project to compare hospitalization and case metrics from a few different states. specifically PA, IL & NJ I think there is very strong evidence that we were catching ~25% of cases in April compared to now with some rough math. In April IL had 2500 cases=5000 hospital. Now now its roughly 12,000 cases=5800 hospital PA is equal to April Hospital peak now with ~4x as many cases. (1500 vs 6000) NJ is equal to their April case peak ~4,000 cases, but 2,000 hospitalizations now vs 8000 in April That would mean we would be reporting ~120,000 cases/day at April peak with today's testing. almost 40,000 of those in NY at peak. This also implies the mortality rate hasn't dropped THAT much, maybe from ~2.0-2.5% CFR to 1.5-1.7% CFR based on today's testing Also shows how much harder New York and New Jersey in particular were hit compared to any other state in the spring.

Total hospitalized 76,830 (+3816) that's a steep increase.

New cases look to be lower today than yesterday by a decent number. Not sure how much to read into that. If we (hopefully) have a muted case jump tomorrow could potentially be a sign of a start of leveling off of cases

Ultimately the WMO makes the final call on TC naming conventions for the N. Atlantic basin, even though the NHC can suggest changes. That said it is time to serious reconsider the use of Greek names and the lack of ability to formally retire them. Zeta, Eta & (probably) Iota would all normally be fairly strong contenders for retirement, with Delta probably being less likely. I know its unlikely the Greek names would be used very othen, but you wouldn't want the (small) chance you have another Hurricane Eta in a Caribbean in a couple of years.

Might be a sign that transmission rates are stabilizing a bit in some areas (hopefully) WI/IL had similar case numbers to last Tuesday. Ohio didn't jump from Monday to Tuesday like past two weeks. MI/IN still showed increases. One day does not make a trend, though.

Hospitalizations were +190 in IN +300 in IL today, not great.

At least that number is not up from last Tuesday, maybe transmission rate is starting to stabilize a bit.

Overall case growth in many states, including Indiana started to accelerate more rapidly about 3 weeks ago (roughly the time lag between case and death reporting). 4 & 5 weeks ago U.S. cases went up by ~7000 over the 7-day report. 3 weeks ago it rose to 17,000. 2 Weeks ago 33,000. Last week 40,000.

You brought up the dropping humidity. From looking at case numbers in different states it is clear that temperatures are not the only factor. Sure colder weather draws more people indoors, but it doesn't explain the rise in transmission in places like Florida or southern California very well. Believe it or not the exact triggers for increased transmission or seasonal respiratory viruses isn't known very well, although it is probably a combination of things come climatic and physiological.

Yeah, as we move into December daily numbers going back to 2k+ is basically baked into the system based on the current case load and known CFR which has not changed much since August. Until the numbers start to stabilize how much is baked into the system will continue to increase. Hopefully stuff like that the Antibody treatment just approved and currently being sent to states will be able to bring the CFR down a bit more going forward if it does reduce hospitalizations/mortality. But limited supply and you need a system get it to high risk positive individuals soon after infection (this part is a bit tricky as this is for early in course of infection NOT when you already need to go to the hospital). But if hospitals get further strained as they already are in many places, standard of care gets reduced and CFR goes up.

I think at this point we know certain situations result in higher risk of both transmission and super spreader events. being indoors, not wearing a mask, not having good indoor ventilation when indoors, and amount of time spent indoors/in proximity to someone exposed are all factors. This is why an outdoor protest where high percentage wear masks results in much lower transmission then sitting down and eating at a restaurant and casual indoor social gatherings. A short trip to the grocery store assuming all wear masks (they do here in Mass.) has fairly minimal risk IMHO. I am only in there 15-20 minutes if I know what I am buying when I go in. Duration of potential exposure is important.

This already basically happened in the El Paso area. They had to fly patients elsewhere in Texas and it is very likely standard of care in the city suffered. They still have 1100 hospitalized in the El Paso area w/~1500 cases/day. Capacity issues are now starting to show up in many other areas, with the Plains and upper Midwest in worst shape and OH Valley not far behind.

Over 8% of the state has tested positive, and they have the 8th worst per capita deaths in the U.S. Only the northeast states and LA/MS are worse.

You already had the FBI uncover a plot to kidnap the Governor. To call this irresponsible is putting it mildly.