dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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Eye seems to be shrinking, signs of ERC starting? Structure still looks excellent obviously.
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Models keeping this as a cat 4 until 12 hours before landfall. Surge basically baked in at that point.
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Probably a bit stronger that last recon, but has to be close to maximum potential intensity for this location.
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GFS seems like its on its own with regards to less weakening before landfall. Most other guidance seems to want to knock Milton down more prior to landfall compared to previous runs. Wont matter too much as far as the surge unfortunately.
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Category 5 hurricane moving west to east in the GOM, not something you see everyday.
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12Z track guidance from tropical tidbits seems to be zeroing in on Sarasota area for LF. lot of the northern models shifted south. Better for Tampa Bay, although that entire coastal area is fairly densely populated. Obviously still too early to rule out to a LF north of there yet. Want to see the GFS start moving south. Intensity guidance has 100-110 kt at LF, while on a weakening trend.
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Hopefully the RI this morning scares people in harms way in surge zones to evac. For the short term, things to watch for besides model trends are potential current greater land interaction with the Yucatan and ERC's. Current motion is still South of due East.
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Going due east from here would keep the eyewall offshore I believe. if Milton keeps drifting S of east it's another matter. Better for Florida but obviously would be a very bad strike for northern Yucatan which due to its location basically never experiences strong hurricane conditions.
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Was beginning to wonder how close Milton gets to the Yucatan? Any chance it actually makes landfall there? Obviously that would weaken the storm.
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One piece of good news is the models almost universally have Milton weakening from 72 hours until landfall due to shear/dry air getting entrained into the circulation. Hopefully that process occurs soon enough and drops the intensity enough before hand to mitigate surge.
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Good chance that's just the HWRF with its occasional run that really overdoes the intensity. Obviously anyone on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane.
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Best, or more like less bad scenario, is for Milton to come in south of Tampa obviously. Regardless, this is a major surge threat made even worse by the fact Helene just did a number on coastal areas/beaches etc. along a good portion of the west coast. Lot of sand has been pushed inland and debris is laying on the ground. 3 days is hardly enough time to clean that up/repair beaches.
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When was the last time a Hurricane came west to east across the Gulf to effect the west coast of Florida like that?
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Also as mentioned elsewhere the west coast is even more vulnerable right now due to erosion caused by Helene.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
dan11295 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Also have to consider that many people are preoccupied with Helene aftermath/ready to move on from this hurricane season because of it. Plus some of our southeastern posters are dealing with direct impacts of that storm. -
I doubt the actual death toll is anywhere close to that high. I am sure the vast major of missing just haven't been able to contact loved ones due to lack of communication. This is a common occurrence following major storms. That said, I do expect the toll to rise some due to the difficulty associated with conducting searches over a broad area when accessibility is hampered by damaged infrastructure, plus having to locate and notify next of kin.
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I-40 Damage in NC Here is a short aerial video with just once example of the type of infrastructure damage that has occurred. That is a long section of highway that is going to have to be re-built before it is re-opened to full capacity.
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I suspect a lot of the reason for the chaser convergence was limited safe locations to chase near the landfall point. Perry is the closest decent size town. Really nothing right on the coast and would have been extremely dangerous with the surge anyways.
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Amazed are how high power outages in Eastern GA and Western SC. Basically all of Augusta GA has no power, same with Greenville County, SC Obviously, rightfully a lot of focus has been on the surge in Florida and very bad flooding in western NC. but large swath of inland wind damage also. Many of the deaths were from falling trees is both GA and SC. Here is link to some pics from Valdosta, GA Valdosta GA damage
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Power outages continuing to skyrocket in NC/SC now. Strong gusts combined with saturated soils must be bringing a lot of trees down. 3.7M customers out across the southeast. High impact event over a broad area.
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700k (25% of state)is now out in South Carolina.
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Lets not forget western NC also, flooding situation there is about to get very bad. Already multiple Flash Flood Emergencies with heaviest rainfall about to start there.
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That still intense convection is going right over them. Looking at the power outage maps the entire SE half of GA has major outages now. 2.5M+ customers without power in the southeast as a whole now.
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Need to see if Helene resumes a more NNE movement for now once about to go inland.
