dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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latest HRRR runs are a bit weaker/bit lower winds, though may be mostly model noise at this point.
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HWW for SE Coastal Mass and Cape mentions Gusts to 75 now. With some trees still leafed you get gusts close to that you are going to have power issues. I agree for Interior SNE is will be mostly NBD though.
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Two things made the urban flash flooding worse than Floyd. First you had saturated soils in NYC metro from Henri a week prior. Second was the extreme rainfall rates. 3"/hr rates were occurring and 5-6" over a 2-3 hour period.
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https://www.fox5ny.com/news/5-dead-in-flooded-elizabeth-nj-apartment-complex
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3.10" in 1 hour in Central Park Major flash flooding in NYC and NJ now.. 7.36" at EWR (5" in 2 hours).
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Newark up to 6.79" with heavy rain continuing. Northern NJ has major problems.
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TOR-E in NJ wtf.
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They are getting TOR's in E PA and S NJ
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UK and HRRR agree with max in the CT-RI corridor
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12z NAM was a bit NW with axis of heaviest precip compared to 06z in the NY/CT area. Agreed its a nowcast regarding numbers and actual jackpot areas. 3-5" would be a good soaking for this area but nothing too usual. 7-8"+ is a different mattter. 12Z rolls the heaviest precip through SNE 05-09z with 1-2" falling in a 1-2 hr window.
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https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ida/index.html#18/29.35812/-90.25239 NOAA has some aerial imagery up, mainly along major access roads. Things clearly visible: Flooding in Jean Lafitte. Structural damage from wind along Route 1 NW of Grand Isle Through Great Meadow-Galiano- Cut off Etc.
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You do have a lot of tin roofs, especially in the more rural areas which make those buildings more vulnerable. However, the videos are I have seen from chasers so far have shown significant structural/roof damage in Lafourche Parish from Lockport southeast as well as in Houma (all those areas saw the eye wall).
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We are going to start running out of "I" names at some point at this rate. Even without a full assessment I would be shocked if Ida wasn't retired.
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Houma is still getting a lot of the western eye wall
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Lot of Debris flying around in Timmer's stream in Houma. He is still in outer eye wall.
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Center is technically still 1/2 over water with most of the "land" probably covered by surge. I would expect noticeable degradation in the next 1-2 hours as the center finally gets fully onto dry land.
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All those communities NW of Grand Isle toward Larose are just getting raked with the NE eye wall.
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IR presentation remains impressive with more cooling cloud tops wrapping around the eye. Inland wind damage is going to be significant.
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That story was taken back.
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Houma alone has 33k pop. compared to Lake Charles 77k. Difference is there isn't much in that area other than Lake Charles. Where Laura's eastern eye wall went was sparsely populated. Anywhere between Houma and Laplace is going to take a beating here.
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not close, more than 50% of that was due to the flood walls failing. Plus Katrina was a very large hurricane. Shot in the dark number would be similar to Laura last year.
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Storm still not degrading at all on IR. western NO suburbs and Houma are really going to get whacked.
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Very fortunate it appears the eye wall will miss the city proper. If that is one saving grace with this,
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I think the core misses downtown NO, but there is still going to be a lot of damage from this.
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possible the eye goes to the east of the location, but there aren't many good options closer to the center of track/coast without putting yourself at too much risk.
