dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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Current BOX snowfall forecast looks like a 10:1 of the 6z GFS. Certainly on the conservative size and we know the GFS has been trash with this storm so far. From the past i know BOX really does not like to forecast numbers >24" prior to start of storm start and certainly not 24 hours out.
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GFS coming west is a very good sign. Still have to work at timing of capture and hopefully EURO EPS members resolve the divergence shortly.
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The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,
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The dual lows plus EPS members are telling me to keep expectations in a little bit of check. Still minor timing issues which could have sig impacts to realized amounts.
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People gotta stop smoking the Kuchie. Those type of ratios aren't usually seen outside of deform bands. Plus winds near the coast especially will knock down ratios. The most important thing, models like GFS notwithstanding (which is trending W) in the upper levels are trending in the right direction. This was evident earlier when the actual upper air observations were showing generally more favorable setup then some of the models.
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Appears the dual lows may actually be a thing. RGEM/NAM/ICON all show it now. Will have to see how that impacts storm evolution going forward.
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I agree sell the early capture and stall. I would IMHO mostly sell much of a stall in general. There is a history of overdoing stalling at this range. Might slow a bit as it closes off though. The West vs east camp needs to be resolved.
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Not at the end of January, this isn't March or April.
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Really windy here now
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2" here in Maynard. Just NW of the main band it appears
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December 15th-16th Warmth, Wind, and Severe Threat
dan11295 replied to Geoboy645's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Wrong thread? -
I am sure many of the missing are with relatives, etc. It can take a few days to track everyone down/confirm they are OK. AFAIK only 11 deaths have been reported in Dawson Springs so far. It would be very fortunate if it remains that low. Town has ~2500 people and took a direct hit.
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https://twitter.com/bclemms/status/1469815153780793347 Footage of Dawson Springs, KY. pop ~2500. Also hit directly by the long track tornado that hit Mayfield. High end damage.
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Time of the year is hampering recovery work some due to limited daylight available compared to typical springtime events. Some of these locations, like the candle factory in Mayfield, are just too dangerous to work in at night.
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Wonder how far is was continuously on the ground for. Surveys will be able to tell whether is briefly cycled at some point or not. without a doubt will be a an (in)famous long track tornado.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dan11295 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Thunder here too. -
Sounds like the Bowling Green tornado went from Moss Creek Ave area NW toward WKU/Bypass in center of city.
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Sounds like the 50 number so far is for all of KY. Unfortunately that number is likely to go up. Mayfield and Bowling Green both took direct hits from violent tornadoes.
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There is a chance it went mostly south of Hayti (hopefully).
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Lots of blocked catch basins with all the leaves on the ground. Had to take a couple of short detours on my way home.
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down to 50k out, looks like almost all will have it back by tonight.
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500k outages. I know Irene and Halloween Snow had 600k+ with most of those outages in both those cases being in the interior.
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Winds have started to come down, outages still rising a bit 475k now. 75%+ of Plymouth County is out.
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Power outages still increasing pretty fast up to 380k now. Winds certainly did not under perform in SE Mass. Many trees still having leaves did not help here.
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350k out in MA (up 50k in past 30 minutes). Traffic reports show many trees down even on major highways in SE Mass.
