Jump to content

dan11295

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,174

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by dan11295

  1. dan11295
    Declared extratropical at 11 am. Safe to say I don't think we will be seeing the name Melissa again.
  2. dan11295
    That's some of the first video I have seen in the landfall zone. You can tell by how the trees were snapped and the overturned vehicles that extreme winds were experienced.
  3. dan11295
    Wonder how much longer that Montego Bay stream stays up? That northern eye wall is very intense on radar.
  4. dan11295
    Looks like its about to get much worse there very shortly.
  5. dan11295
    That gust report in Montego bay seems a bit high, they still got 20-30 minutes before they get into the eyewall based on Pilon, Cuba radar.
  6. dan11295
    Unless Melissa really starting moving NE soon Montego Bay is going to get the eyewall.
  7. dan11295
    Looks like Savanna la Mar might get into the western eyewall with this continued north movement.
  8. dan11295
    Looks like Melissa really trying to hug the coastline for a bit prior to finally being pulled inland.
  9. dan11295
    Based on Pilon, Cuba radar eyewall probably coming ashore in next 45-60 minutes
  10. dan11295
    Last dropsondes suggests Melissa has peaked/leveled off with the 895 mb 7 kt. Not going to matter much at this point though as far as Jamaica goes. This is basically going to be landfall intensity.
  11. dan11295
    Seeing that dropsonde on a storm 2-3 hours from landfall is terrifying.
  12. dan11295
    Can't imagine the wind gusts that will occur at elevated locations with this storm. Fortunately a lot of buildings there are concrete block at least.
  13. dan11295
    I wonder if Melissa had a slight rise in pressure during the eyewall meld, and is now steady state or slightly intensifying again. Almost certainly not weakening at the moment.
  14. dan11295
    #9 all time in Atlantic Basin by pressure
  15. dan11295
    Just a reminder that late season storms can show colder cloud tops than normal especially at night compared to earlier season storms. Not that Melissa isn't an intense hurricane, which it is.
  16. dan11295
    11230 1632N 07836W 6972 02308 9028 +223 +126 025015 020 016 002 00 902.8 mb extrap Wonder if thats a bit low though.
  17. dan11295
    Look at the radar. heavy rain has been pounding most the island for the past 6 hours. Precip echos surrounding the eye seemed a bit less intense on the radar loop during the last 2-3 hours. Don't know if there is some attenuation involved since Melissa obviously still has great IR presentation. Not sure how long we will have access to radar once the storm moves closer.
  18. dan11295
    Melissa is expected to turn due North then Northeast very shortly. would take a large very short term modeling error to miss the island sadly.
  19. dan11295
    12Z HAFS-A keeps Melissa basically steady state until a 907mb 16z landfall just west of Treasure Beach. HAFS-B has 901 mb landfall a bit tad further west about 13z
  20. dan11295
    6z HAFS-A model which has handled Melissa very well intensity and movement wise, bottoms out of 906 mb between 6-9z Tuesday with 913 mb at landfall West movement has ceased on satellite. Based on all the models and forecast, the north turn should be imminent.
  21. dan11295
    Only positive is that Melissa might be far enough west to keep Kingston area out of the eyewall winds and the south coast of Jamaica isn't that surge prone. Biggest threat has been and continues to be the flooding as hazwoper just mentioned. Farther west track unfortunately subjects more of the island to very high rainfall totals and the NNE trajectory is unfortunately very favorable to squeezing out the moisture via orographic lifting.
  22. dan11295
    It appears NHC overshot the actual winds and pressure drop with the 5 am advisory. But I understand operationally why they would not want to drop the winds, which could imply a weakening system. They obviously do not want anyone to start letting their guard down with the main rain shield now very close to reaching Jamaica.
  23. dan11295
    Eye continuing to clear on IR, suggesting intensification is continuing.
  24. dan11295
    looks to be still some rotation with the Holden cell. Going to come really close to here so definitely watching it.
  25. dan11295
    This was at 402 pm when it looked to be the strongest
×
×
  • Create New...