dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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Kind of crazy that Pensacola is going to have a bigger snow event than Boston has has in 2+ winters
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Umm, we did, its name was Milton.
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Am pretty sure the 2013 data is garbage also
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Just to be clear those are economic loss estimates and not just actual estimated insured or insured+uninsured damages.
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I am assuming in Manasota Key/Grove City that is actually Milton damage and not mostly previous damage from Helene (I don't know what the area looked like post-Helene and pre-Milton). Could also be a cumulative effect of both storms, since both had generally similar surges (with some variation) within such a short time period along the Ft Myers-Sarasota stretch of coastline.
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Obviously we don't have a full scope of damage yet. While the 10-15' surge did not materialize for Tampa Bay, this was still a category 3 impacting a lot of populated real estate.
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The fact that Milton went south of Tampa Bay and the expected peak surge values came down a bit will no doubt mitigate potential damage. I would think places like Venice would have had the highest surge.
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Winds have turned to the SE in Ft. Myers area so surge has started there.
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Is KSPG in St. Petersburg located in an exposed location? They are seeing the strongest sustained winds (and first Sustained TS winds I could find on land).
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Getting a bit late for models at this point but 12z GFS has Sarasota landfall at 03Z
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Getting first Tornado Warnings for that heavy band over the SW coast.
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928.8 mb extrap from recon. Pressure is coming up but again this is pretty much expected and in line with forecasts. As previously discussed the surge is basically baked in with ~12 hrs before landfall.
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Getting first TS force gusts on land now at Venice
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Milton looks very messy on more recent IR loop. More signs of shear beginning to have greater effect?
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6Z GFS really weakens it, HAFS and other tropical models not so much.
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NHC dropped the surge in Tampa Bay down to 8-12 ft imho telegraphing a shift east of the track at 11 am. But I hope those in places like near Charlotte Harbor got out if they were close to surge zone. Don't want a repeat of what happened in Lee County with Ian.
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6z tropicals all shifted to the east. Obviously do not let your guard down in Tampa proper. But definitely leaning towards Siesta Key down to Sarasota myself. Still an open question how much Milton weakens before landfall. Thats not going to matter much wrt surge unfortunately.
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6Z GFS has some interesting movement where it goes almost due E between hr 12-18. Its one of the reason it appears the landfall location is as far south at it is. Need to see the other 6z models obviously.
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18Z Euro continues to much slower than the other guidance. Might be the reason it makes the hard right turn while still offshore compared to the GFS. 0Z track guidance just came out on tropical tidbits and looks to be further south than 18Z
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210330 2242N 08727W 6957 02329 9024 +236 +106 318007 025 039 001 03 902.4 mb extrap
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Looking at the 12Z models the Euro is noticeable slower than the rest and the current NHC forecast with landfall 6 hours later (approx. 7 am Thursday) I wonder why it's so slow.
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Very close to 0z GFS, maybe a couple miles further south but not any meaningful change.
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18Z GFS shifted S at landfall. Definitely seeing positive trend for now as far as Tamp Bay. Verbatim its still very bad for Tampa but its the trend I am looking at here.
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Milton is already basically very close to maximum potential intensity, really can't get much stronger.
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FWIW 18Z ICON was a bit south and weaker at LF
