nzucker

I think most people are expecting a -NAO. Consensus seems to be we'll have a decent winter with a weak Nina, -QBO/low solar, and -NAO cycle. No one really knows though, that's why weather is fun! Here was my snowpack:

High was 86.8F, about 2F above average. Unfortunately, it's another mild night despite the clear skies, so the AC has gone back on. FAIR 73.4/62

I'd still rather race it in a house without a basement. Besides, the whole public is told to "stay home and hide" so you're not likely to hit a lot of traffic and probably make a quick escape.

Not surprising...the low in town here was 13.7F but I'm sure some of the frost hollows in the woods behind my house, which reach an elevation over 400', got well into the single digits. The difference in snowpack retention in the woods is also incredible: there's nearly 18" back there while around town it's more like a foot snowpack.

You're going to have very nice ratios up there. Even down here in Southern Westchester at 350' elevation, I'm thinking at least 12:1 ratios for this storm since 850s are like -6C, and I expect the storm to occur overnight which should hold temperatures in the mid 20s. This is another cold storm like 12/26, albeit with less wind, which should promote better dendrite formation. I'm liking the chances for 8-12" for NYC metro including the extreme NW areas...you might see a little less QPF than LI, but you'll be vastly colder.

10" reported in Somers in Northern Westchester County... 4" here in Dobbs Ferry.

I agree that people expect too much of the City in terms of plowing/clean-up immediately following the storm, but there needed to be a greater effort made to allow emergency vehicles to pass. Fire trucks and ambulances were delayed by hours trying to get to calls because of the poor plowing, and three people died as a result. That is inexcusable.