nzucker

Yea I doubt we will see that many more. All the models show troughing through mid August...how many more 90s are we really going to see after 8/15 unless we have a 1953 type September heat wave? You are saying 4 more for NYC, which makes sense, probably 2-3 more in late August once the trough passes and then 1-2 more in September, always hot for first week of school. Models also show potential tropical moisture, and NYC has a tough time hitting 90F with high soil moisture and vegetation growth. Combine that with a declining sun angle post 8/15 and you see a bleak picture for racking up 90s.

There are windy conditions as the low bottoms out near 980mb but also a cold core of -10C 850s near the NE Beaufort as well as uniformly below freezing 850s across the Arctic to balance it out. The ECM/GFS take the deep vortex out towards August 15th, becomes difficult to see huge losses as we approach the second half of August. A lock now that area and extent finish above 2007 and 2012, probably 2011 as well.

Doesn't the weather look favorable with a vortex near Alaska/Beaufort?

The GFS stopped showing the -40C contour. They used to show it. You now just see a big area of -30C on the MSLP/QPF/850 map.

The coronal hole thing probably explains the blip, but it's superimposed on a long-term decline in Arctic sea ice that allows for such abnormally poor periods in ice extent. Re: the temp anomaly map, that's an extreme example of the -AO warm arctic, cold continents pattern. +24C anomalies in the Arctic while Siberia, Southwest Asia, and Western North America see near record cold. It's actually fairly encouraging to see such large areas of cold anomalies, which suggest Winter 16-17 in the Northern Hemisphere will be MUCH COLDER than Winter 15-16 was in the Super El Nino, in which almost nowhere finished below average.

The GFS looks pretty favorable for the Arctic in the medium to long range with the vortex continuing north of AK in the Beaufort. There does seem to be some ridging in the Canadian Archipelago so that area could have some losses, on the other hand.

Planted tomatoes, red onions, tarragon, basil, and thyme here in the northern Poconos at 1560'...I'm not from your region but I usually post about my garden near NYC. This year I'm up north and growing less but still trying...may get some arugula in, too. Already have lots of sage, oregano, and wild mint. Red onions can take up to 150 days to mature, and I planted them May 24th here in northern PA. How will they handle cold weather in late October and early November? (We are in a sheltered valley at nearly 1600' in northern PA with an average first frost of 9/20...average last around 5/20). Any tips to speed the onions along?

-20C 850s moving in...

What happened to Baro and the guy from the Yukon?

I had 17" in the 2/10/13 storm and 52" on the winter. Not bad at all.

2/25/10 Snowicane?

Picked up 11" down here in Dobbs Ferry from XMAS 2002. It was forecast to be mostly rain but changed over quickly to a heavy, dense snow. It took my aunt and uncle 6 hours to make the normally 2-hour trip from Albany to visit us on Christmas; they kept waiting for snow to change to rain as they drove, expecting a flip south of Poughkeepsie, but it stayed white to the coast. Hellish drive for them on I-87 but a great weather day. Still one of my favorite storms despite only receiving about a foot.

Some very cold 850s in northern Greenland: Looks as if a warm-up is coming with an east-based -NAO, however.

Greenland looks to get real cold in the next week...18z GFS shows -20C 850s atop the ice sheet at 180 hours. First sighting of the -20C isotherm in a few months:

Barring a tremendous -NAO block, looks as if it's almost time to stick a fork in the 2015 Greenland melt season. Melt area has been significantly below average for the last few weeks.

Both White Plains (HPN) and the Dobbs Ferry Wunderground station had a high of exactly 90F yesterday. That makes five 90-degree days here in Southern Westchester. We may get one today, despite last night's rain, and tomorrow should definitely be at least 90F. August is quickly making up ground for the cool start in June (my high on 6/1 was 58F and my high on 6/2 was 54F). Been a very warm stretch since early July, though lacking the extreme heat we saw in 2010 and 2011.

Looks as if melt is below average to start August, and should remain that way with cold air pooling over Greenland. Might get a brief spike from WAA as the low from the Beaufort approaches, but then a strong high pressure with -10C 850s settles over the ice sheet, keeping it cold...GFS shows 2m temps of -20C in the higher elevations atop Greenland.

Only have four 90-degree days in Dobbs Ferry this season.

What are temperatures like in January and February?

You guys got a late start on 90s with the wet May and early June pattern. I imagine it's pretty much a given that every day in July and August hits 90F.

Was surprised NYC hit 90F yesterday. Today is probably too cloudy but may come close in parts of NJ.

Looks like a major cooldown coming.

LOL, thanks for calling me out...Got some new stuff coming along in the garden. This was one of the smaller red cabbages I harvested... Inside of a large red cabbage freshly picked. Eggplant now has a fruit, was just developing in this photo. My first zucchini, although powdery mildew and cool weather has slowed plant down. It hasn't been that hot here this year, although the last few days in the mid 80s has pushed the garden along. I should be harvesting cherry tomatoes within a week or so, regular sized tomatoes in 2 weeks, along with eggplant and zucchini. I am still harvesting cabbage, and a big green one is almost ready to be picked. Cabbage has been one of my highlights this year, excellent crop with delicious flavor. I also made a bunch of pesto with all my basil, as I have at least 20 plants. Will update this thread more as the garden warrants...

Here are some pics from this year.. Usually grow Apollo Arugula but this variety with serrated leaves is good too, looks a bit like frisee. Red cabbage planted in early April, almost ready...also have the green variety. These guys get huge. Growing slowly with the cool weather. Love fresh eggplant though, makes pasta delicious. Tomato plants have a few flowers but also suffering from lack of heat. Lettuce has gone nuts this year, bought this early April and has yielded for almost 2 months. Can't wait to harvest my first zucchini. Has some powdery mildew though... Love making salads with fresh greens from the garden.

Great thread, always follow it closely. I live north of NYC on a small suburban property so have a cooler climate and less space, but I manage a garden. Here is what I have: 8 lettuce plants, mostly oakleaf 8 cabbage, some red, some green 2 varieties arugula, mostly Apollo 1 kale 20 basil/purple basil 4 tomatoes, cherry, beefsteak, Lemon Boy and Brandywine 4 peppers, sweet and hot 2 zucchini 2 eggplant, Black Beauty and Japanese 1 winter squash, Guatemalan blue oregano dill wild mint thyme sage tarragon I have harvested a lot of greens and herbs, especially arugula and oakleaf lettuce which went nuts. Basil has gotten huge. Zucchini has several fruits but not big enough to harvest.Tomatoes are flowering and so are eggplants but no fruits yet. I have a second round of arugula getting ready. We don't have nearly the heat...most days this June have been in the 70s, a few in the 60s, and the first two days of June had highs of 58F and 54F. So it's a little different up here...I have been gardening since 2008 and learned a lot. Just started composting again, and can't wait for this year's harvest.