nzucker

Doesn't the weather forecast look increasingly hostile though with a strong ridge over the Siberian side? Even if it's not a dipole, won't that degree of warmth (like +9C 850) promote melting?

It still looks like just a moderate melt pattern unless the PV over Baffin Island loses all influence. It's rare to get such a widespread high pressure extending from the Beaufort to Greenland, as we had in 2012. The usual response to ridging over Alaska is lower heights and associated PV in the Baffin region. The PV has been very stubborn in recent summers. With early indications that it is re-establishing in an environment of lower overall hemispheric heights, I remain skeptical of a 2012/2007 melt unless we see major changes.

It's hard to get a strong high pressure over Greenland with the near constant vortex near Hudson Bay. Some of the long range GFS runs have shown a ridge poking into Greenland from the east, however. Do you think the PV may finally drop further south and be forced out of the Baffin/Hudson Bay region?

Will, the maps I'm seeing are showing relatively low heights over the Arctic and overall much cooler temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere compared to recent extreme warmth...this has a weak dipole signature but still looks chilly over the North Pole and parts of the Canadian Archipelago/Greenland...the rest of the Arctic would probably be near average in this pattern:

Global SSTs have also decreased to around 0.19C anomaly after being as high as 0.3C anomaly earlier this year...so that is possibly driving some of the cooling, as well as the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which is favoring lower heights in the mid to upper latitudes.

To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently.

How does melt ponding look at this point in May?

And the contrails...don't forget the contrails.

I think they should both go. Guys, this thread is about Arctic Sea Ice, not about the current cold snap in the Northeast U.S., or the Russian plot to displace cold from Siberia and move it to North America, or anything else. Keep it on track about the health and state of the cryosphere. Is that so difficult?

Actually plenty of areas of the Dakotas average less snow than parts of the NYC metro. Exceptions being the higher elevations in the western parts of the state like the Badlands, the Black Hills, Theodore Roosevelt Natl Park.

Nope, there wasn't much snowcover. The Feb 11-12 storm disappeared in a few days, and January and March both torched. There was a small period in mid-December with snow on the ground but nothing noteworthy.

Yes, this could be another good fall for Eurasian snow cover with a large ridge over the Kara/Barents area as well as a ridge over most of North America. This pushes all the cold into Russia/Mongolia/China as the PV sets up there early on.

It looks blocked by medium concentration ice in the image above. Is that refreezing in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by 9/9?

Looks as if the Northwest Passage never opened? A relatively weak melt season in terms of area and extent, but volume continues to show limited recovery.

If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat. And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.

I've been tempted to pull the bedroom A/C several times..I don't think I've turned it on once since August 22nd, the day that hit 89F in Central Park. NYC has only reached 80F twice this September, and several days have topped out in the 60s and low 70s...It's been annoying to lose the cool breeze the window generates by having the A/C unit blocking the vast majority of the window. I can open the top a crack, but it doesn't provide nearly the ventilation that a full window would. I may need the A/C one last time this week, which is why I kept it in...Wednesday and Thursday look fairly warm at 82/67, though not that much above normal for mid-September. Once the next trough arrives, it's out. It looks like the next trough is progged to approach the area around 9/20 with the arrival of Juan, and that is climatologically around the point that most people switch from cooling to heating anyway. Sure, there may be one or two warm days in October, but those are usually brief and are generally accompanied by low humidity, so there isn't much point in keeping A/C in. Uninstall awaits the coming of the weekend trough.

I may have even been too high with 1-2 more 90s for NYC and 3-4 more for EWR...looks like we were done after the widespread 90F readings on Aug 1st. We may see a slightly warmer pattern in the second half of September, or at least the next week, but it doesn't look extreme enough with declining climo to reach 90F again in NYC. It looks as though 12 90-degree days will be the number for Summer 2017. Barring any extreme changes in the forecast or the first October 90F since 1944, time to put this thread away for winter hibernation. The fat lady has sung...saying she will see us in April.

I don't think your forecast will verify for EWR or NYC. You need 4 more at NYC (16 have 12) and 6 more at EWR (25 have 19). I think the reality is 1-2 more at NYC and 2-3 for EWR. You will be very close but probably on the high side unless September is huge heat. 2015 was the warmest September ever and had 6 days of 90F. Current pattern keeps Canadian high pressure over the area into September, looks like until at least 9/5. With 9/15 basically the cut off for more than an isolated 90F every 10 years, time is running out fast. You could feel it in the air yesterday. Still warm but sun is losing its punch. Airmass is transitioning to low humidity deep blue skies.

Well Jeanne Clement in France lived until 122...so you just would have to be 11 years older than the oldest person ever. I would be 91 in 2079. Hopefully I make it then fail soon after.

It's impressive to see -10C 850s reaching the Siberian coast with sub-freezing 850s into Scandinavia in mid-August. The effect of the storm may be more detrimental as it drifts towards Eurasia and strengthens..it's only like 1000mb over the CAB now.

I think this storm is less windy than the 2012 event...pressures are a little bit more diffuse, as there is not nearly as much gradient. Also, 850s are somewhat colder with this storm. There is a large area of -10C 850s and a high concentration ice pack, so there isn't the tearing apart effect that 2012 had on broken up, mushy ice. Instead, the cold is refreezing the periphery and the ice may spread out a bit.

I think 3-4 more 90F days for NYC is very reasonable. It will depend on how far north the ridge builds after 8/18. Definitely could be a strong trough in the west, but it looks shortlived and the warmest readings look to be to our north. It's getting late to rack up 90s especially with the 7-day forecast not showing any. It's 8/17 at that point, losing daylight fast.

October 2007 was one of the warmest on record. I was in VT, and we were like +6 for the month. Easier to hit 90F late in the season at JFK than early. Not much seabreeze in early October.

2016: 3 90F in September 2015: 6 90F in September 2014: 2 90F in September 2013: 1 90F in September All before 9/15...gets really hard the second half of the month when average highs are dipping into the lower 70s.

Certainly can't but the 90F window historically seems to close in the 9/15-20 window. Even the famed Sept 1953 heat wave was the opening days of the month. NYC hasn't seen a 90F October reading since the 1940s.