MJOatleast7

First flakes in Winchester MA... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

At least the 12Z GFS got rid of the ugly 470s at 500 N of AK

If only...if only...Sukayu Onsen eat your heart out.

Aaaand... Todd Gross is back.

So is this how we chew up those too-warm SSTs and defy the NOAA seasonal?

Also on July 31, 1976, the upper reaches of Big Thompson Canyon, Colorado got 12” in about 4 hours from a thunderstorm that just went nowhere during that whole time. Resulted in a devastating flood downstream. .

On June 22, 1947, Holt, Missouri received 12 inches of rain in 42 minutes. This was cited in a peer-reviewed paper in the AMS Journal. .

Storm just exploded over me in Winchester. Three nasty CG strikes in 2 min Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

sometimes those are positive strikes from the anvil, much more powerful and deadly than the more usual negative CG strikes (although anvil strikes are not the only way to get positive CG strikes)

Crepuscular rays?

curious that the NAO forecast isn't so extreme...especially considering Dennis (915 mb tomorrow approaching Iceland-wtf) and the general pressure field hanging around there until Sunday

Of course, immediately after that, we had a summer with no 90s in Boston (the first one ever) followed by 3 out of 4 winters being epic.

Taal is a tropical volcano. Normally in such a case we'd have 8-12 months of tendency toward +NAO following the eruption, followed by colder. We had the same thing from June 1991 - March 1992 after Pinatubo (in almost the same region) erupted.

Slurpee waves in Nantucket Sound? .

Cue the dark yellow Venus surface flyover with continuous lightning and Patrick Stewart voiceover.

and also how you run a LES event. Watch out Houghton, MI to Tug Hill if that happens.

Looks like LES

Took Pinatubo to do that. The snow we got in April 92 and the summer without a 90F at BOS we’re a result of that event, and followed 9 months of the obligatory NAO+ that accompanies a tropical volcanic eruption. .

0.5° per decade is the current rate I see most often quoted. So 200 years is 10° farther north or 600 n mi. Nova Scotia would be the new secondary cyclogenesis point in miller B's and we play the role that Hilton Head, SC plays now.

sonic booms from SW-bound planes?

HC expansion = amped -> damped.

Also (may have been the same event) March 2012, when the NStar transformer blew on Scotia St in the Back Bay and we all walked around a darkened Boston in shirt sleeves.

Anecdotally and to some degree backed by actual data...is that a good predictor of early heat in spring...and maybe the following summer...is a true ratter winter like 2001-02 and 2011-12. 2001-02 was followed by 89F (BOS) on the last day of March and 93F on April 17 (although that was the day of the infamous undular cold bore/BD that capsized boats in Boston Harbor and caused a 40 F drop in a few hours) 2011-12 had 3 days of 100+ centered on July 22 featuring the second-highest reading ever at BOS (103F) Time will tell if this winter rats out and maintains the correlation (if there is one) in an early/hot spring (though not immune to raging BD reversals) but what 2001-02 and 2011-12 had that this season doesn't have (so far) is a wicked cold NE PAC. So this may not be a third example.

MJO still needs improvement, but not quite so much looking like it wants to camp out all month in 4-5 How far does your source go out? PNA isn't exactly cooperating at least until Jan 16 according to CPC