GrandmasterB

Northwest on the Euro too. Wish we had another 24 hours. Seems like it will be close but no cigar!

Pretty big jump northwest on the Canadian. Maybe the Euro can make a small move in that direction. Not sure we are out of the game yet for Jan 03 at least for the SE crew.

I know you all love some NAM, so check out the 0Z. Much love to our region. Nice thump!

GFS, Euro, and NAM have been slowly improving (for snow/Ice) tomorrow. Any snow or frozen is a plus right now!

Swing and a miss on the first real threat so far and looking at punting the next two weeks. Oh well, still plenty of prime climo time left!

Nice improvement on the CMC. You can see how it could have been even a little better. Obviously would love to see the Euro do something similar!

I know...LOL! I just thought it sounded better

Yeah, the GFS randomly threw in some rain well northwest which is wrong. Overall compared to 6Z it really didn’t change much. I was hoping for at least a little nudge northwest.

Not gonna do it this run. I thought 500 actually looked a little worse vs. 6Z, but the low pressure is a bit stronger so it’s kind of a wash.

Smashing the refresh button on the GFS for a 1-3” “event“, hoping the NAM is on to something. Happy start of the season everyone! Here’s to the NAM and plenty of snow!!

12Z ICON improved (north-er) vs. it’s prior run.

For the record (and before the GFS runs) I do think this comes north a bit. We’ve seen it too many times inside of 60 hours that we get a north trend. I’d rather be rooting for that than trending towards a flatter solution. And in this case the NAM will have led the way!

LOL! I love the NAM too. I just love it because it’s given me approximately 178 30” HECS’s over the last 15 years.

It can certainly score its wins from time to time. There are probably other events where it did the same as your example (which is a sample size of one). However, in many events it’s going to overdo QPF by 20-40%. That it does consistently. It can also have run to run swings outside of 48 hours that are significant.

I bash the NAM more out of sentimentality. It could certainly be useful if it’s discounted in areas...like it’s snowfall maps verbatim. I’m a weenie so I’m going to look at it every cycle and hug it to death when it goes bonkers.

It would be nice to grab even a small event since it sounds like we may be punting a chunk of mid-December. A couple hours of light snow and widespread 1-3 would be fine with me! Onto the Icon and GFS.

Sorry for the crappy paste but I’d sign that right now. Too bad it’s the NAM though.

Oh, NAM. How we pray!

The New England sub forum arguing about how much snow should fall prior to Dec. is one of my favorite things. They get impatient fast up there.

Definitely a 3. Although I've veered into some 4 like behaviors on occasion. I've wanted to quit after some big time busts for sure. And I do sometimes appreciate when New England gets hosed. That forum goes absolutely bonkers, and it's nice not having skin in the game in that case.

As much as I enjoy the "how much rain will I get on Saturday discussion", I'm ready to track snow! I very rarely post, but have been around forever (Eastern, all the street cred stuff). I have known some of you for quite a while which is super weird...but it's the internet so don't be alarmed! With that, I've always enjoyed the "Day in the life of a weenie" posts and other winter season kickoff activity. I've also been amused by watching posters progress from weenie infancy to weenie superstardom. I’ve married those two things into the list below. I hope you enjoy, and please I know I missed a ton on here…throw out the ones I forgot! I’d like to make this a thing each year (if it’s funny). And btw for those who were on the Philly forum when it actually had life, Tombo followed this progression almost to a T. Enjoy! GrandmasterB’s Evolution of a Snow Weenie: Ween level 1 (Noob) – Hi, new to the board (probably lives in Lancaster). Posts snow deck pic obs (hopefully in the mid-atl forum by accident). Imagine if this storm was colder and it was snow! Ween level 2 (In training…but somehow Voyager is here) – How much for Paw Paw? What time does the Euro run/what did the GFS show? Where do you guys get these models? (TWC on in the background). Posts WGAL snow map. Do you guys know a good weather station to buy? What is NAO? Ween level 3 (most of us) – Horst is too conservative on this one/posts twitter snow maps. Posts model snow maps (most likely the NAM) that clearly has tons of sleet in it. Trend is our friend! What is MAG’s take on the new Euro? Posts the NWS daily discussion. Posts a highly suss snow depth obs. I like when Daylight Savings ends so the models “run on time”. Sidewalk is caving. I don’t trust these off hour runs (posts 18Z snow map if it’s a crushing). Major Weenie (Hall of Famer) – Posts 0Z Euro PbP with analysis (no one is awake). Posts long range maps in other forums. ’93-’94 is my current analog. Bemoans high sun angle during a snow event. Picks a fight with a conservative poster in different forum. Needs a “cooling off” period after large model/prediction bust. Claims to be “done with models” posts the GFS next day. It’s the storm after this one I’m interested in. “Incoming!!” 30 seconds into a model run. Tracks a new England snowstorm/likes it when they bust. Starts a new weather site.

Still cloudy in northern Lancaster and judging by the line racing on radar we might be running out of time for getting this heating going.

(Looks around) Yep.

Trying to decide if I’m going to invest in Monday. Looks really borderline down here. Seems like a few more chances at least!