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GrandmasterB

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Everything posted by GrandmasterB

  1. GrandmasterB
    His tag is AllWeather, buddy.
  2. GrandmasterB
    I think he lived in Manheim. He provided great insight when he posted. Dont remember his tag.
  3. GrandmasterB
    The other interesting thing about the 12Z NAM is that it only has about a 14 hour gap between round 1 and round 2 of precip. Round 2 with quite a strong CAD signal as well.
  4. GrandmasterB
    0Z NAM a lot better for the southern tier folks
  5. GrandmasterB
    Tick tick tick north. Still 48 hours to go.
  6. GrandmasterB
    GFS pretty big move north at 0Z
  7. GrandmasterB
    0Z NAM is much further north with precip for storm #2. For those that celebrate.
  8. GrandmasterB
    Interesting backbuilding of heavy cells southwest of Pittsburgh. Please tell Ruin.
  9. GrandmasterB
    Tuesday is still doable, but we need north trends starting with HH today. Where is Blizz to inject some optimism in here??
  10. GrandmasterB
    Latest HRRR is quite dry for this evening. If Tuesday stays south and Thursday/Friday cuts I’m going full Ruin in here.
  11. GrandmasterB
    That’s total precip for the event. Some spots in the south barely over .1
  12. GrandmasterB
    This is concerning for tonight on the 12Z NAM
  13. GrandmasterB
    I don’t think anyone should write off the Tuesday system just yet. North trends are notorious for a reason.
  14. GrandmasterB
    Why is Ruin not red tagged?
  15. GrandmasterB
    Storm #1 is plenty cold on the NAM. I’m more worried about enough precip as other models are fairly dry.
  16. GrandmasterB
    Add that GFS run to the fully tented pile! My goodness.
  17. GrandmasterB
    For the tonight thing. Interesting note by CTP in the latest update. Bolding is mine: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... 10-20F degree dewpoint depressions or T/Td spread continues to prevent light snow returns over the southern tier counties from reaching the ground. This setup should eventually help to enhance the llvl cold air due to favorable evaporative cooling and wet bulb effects as precip begins to spread from southwest to northeast and pick up in intensity late tonight/after midnight.
  18. GrandmasterB
    Dewpoints are low so not sure that matters too much.
  19. GrandmasterB
    Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call.
  20. GrandmasterB
    GFS is a tick colder for the Wednesday night deal. Surface temps in the upper 20’s.
  21. GrandmasterB
    Agree and I’m also noticing that the sleet accumulation maps have accums south of the M/D line which makes me think it will hang on even in southern PA for quite awhile.
  22. GrandmasterB
    Yeah, great question. That’s why I enjoy tracking ice storms. They can be tricky because heavy rain at 30 degrees doesn’t do a lot. Pretty much just runs off before it can accrete. But an 80/20 mix of freezing rain and sleet coming down light or moderate at 28 degrees can by highly impactful. We’ve witnessed busts in both directions with these set-ups. A lot of nuance.
  23. GrandmasterB
    It’s rare. If we start out with temps in the upper 20’s when the precip arrives it’s difficult to dislodge historically.
  24. GrandmasterB
    Colder run of the GFS for Thursday. Temps in the upper 20’s with sleet/freezing rain. Interesting to see if that holds or not. 28 vs. 31 makes a pretty big difference as precip is falling.
  25. GrandmasterB
    At least 8” in my yard and still moderate. Amazing storm!! Great tracking with everyone!
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