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GrandmasterB

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Everything posted by GrandmasterB

  1. GrandmasterB
    18Z Euro. It may still be snowing lightly in our hood at this point as well.
  2. GrandmasterB
    Yep, agreed on both points! GFS did not take a step back and I thought improved in the upper levels. Other thing I also noticed is that a few days ago the storm wasn't really developing until at our latitude or later. Which wouldn't work. Now the models are strengthening it around the outer banks as it moves northeast. The trend has been to strengthen the storm further south...I'm guessing because of an earlier/cleaner phase. Let's see if we can keep that going!
  3. GrandmasterB
    I thought the end result was going to be a lot better on the 18Z GFS. The trends were noticeably better early on.
  4. GrandmasterB
    This is the run that I'd really like the GFS to trend 30-50 miles towards the Euro. If it holds or goes east we can probably say the Euro is overamped.
  5. GrandmasterB
    LOL. When the central/northern posters start throwing out the congrats for the southern crew at 90 hours out, that's a great sign it's not done trending!
  6. GrandmasterB
    I'm ready to extrapolate the NAM past 84 hours because that was going to get it done.
  7. GrandmasterB
    From your lips to Mama Nature's ears!
  8. GrandmasterB
    Just give me a couple Euro ensemble lows right off of the Cheasapeake. I'm not asking for a lot here!
  9. GrandmasterB
    That map is way overdone, but Euro does get the .5 QPF line pretty far back into parts of the forum. Almost through all of Lancaster, which is all I care about!
  10. GrandmasterB
  11. GrandmasterB
    Hour 102 of the CMC is like 200 miles west of its 0Z run. No real precip verbatim but that was a big change vs its 0Z run.
  12. GrandmasterB
    I know we haven't gotten the trends we've needed on the last couple of systems, but this is still really close for 96 hours out. If it were 48 hours fine, I'd punt. Trends have been west today, but also a little faster to develop the storm south of us. All positives so far. Can we bring the energy for 12Z Euro??
  13. GrandmasterB
    GFS definitely keeping the door open. 2-4" east of the river without much precip from the coastal. Still 3+ days out. I know NE gets hammered, but I'm not tossing a moderate event just because I'm not jacked.
  14. GrandmasterB
    You can't weenie wishcast a nor' easter with that attitude! It's still close enough to pray for small trends at least for those of us east of Harrisburg. Chin up paweather!
  15. GrandmasterB
    Delmarva to State College is not my favorite coastal track
  16. GrandmasterB
    I do love model watching and this storm has been a unique one to follow, but if I end up with less than an inch of snow I'm going to be pretty frustrated. Mid Jan and I'll have 3" total.
  17. GrandmasterB
    The surface is sort of the last thing I'm worrying about. Rain at 30 or rain at 34...doesn't accrete well either way. Mag is right (of course) about the duration. It doesn't have a lot of time to wreck the surface temps. Usually that happens on SW winds when the low is ripping up through Lake Erie. I think the NAM is probably too high and fast on surface temps.
  18. GrandmasterB
    I actually thought the 18Z NAM looked a bit better than its 12Z run (which was also a disaster). The surface low is further south and east early on. Then as the surface low tracks into PA it tries to transition to a coastal just south of LI. I know the mid levels are nuked at that point but if that transition can happen further south or east that will buy us valuable thump time.
  19. GrandmasterB
    Agree with you Bubbler on the CMC. That's one way we can get back to a snowier solution. Get the coastal low going sooner/more east and cut off the surge to our west. CMC is a noticeable shift towards that. Let's see if we can get it on the Euro. I can't believe tomorrow is another full day tracking for this event! Feels like we've been tracking it for a month now.
  20. GrandmasterB
    One aspect of this storm I was looking forward to was the advertised hellacious front-end thump showing up. However, that has backed down significantly for us in the southeast as the WAA precip lags while the SE flow in the mid-levels is just raging. So now we'll be waiting for the precip to get here as the mid-levels will be getting wrecked. Looks like a burst of snow, to some sleet, then drizzle. That burst of snow is dwindling for some of us.
  21. GrandmasterB
    Icon at 78 looks slightly better. For whatever that’s worth.
  22. GrandmasterB
    Snowing nicely and I noticed the wind has switched around to the northeast and has freshened up. Feels like a real snowstorm out there!
  23. GrandmasterB
    Love me some Treehouse. I have 30ish cans in the fridge right now! Cheers!!
  24. GrandmasterB
    I really like how this is setting up. It appears that dry area that was modeled is southeast of our forum.
  25. GrandmasterB
    Light snow. Deck caved. Radar looking good as well. I like all those things!
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