GrandmasterB

Nevermind! Saw this in the Philly thread. Damn!

where's the 18Z Euro update at? Rumors of a souther/colder tick. paweather, whadya got??

Dewpoint is 27-28 when precip starts on the GFS. Upper 20's is different than 31/32 in these situations.

My takeaway here is that the freezing rain line is way south into MD. Even if it's wrong by 50-70 miles, we're still in the crosshairs. I'm usually pretty down on these threats but I think this one could be impactful.

I know I'll regret saying this...BUT shouldn't we be putting more stock in the NAM at this range and with this set-up? The old rule used to be globals were too aggressive (warm) with surface temps when the high was parked in this spot. The high isn't racing east this time. I know we underperformed ice lately, but this is a different set-up than the last few.

MAG talking dirty. Gotta love that!

Throw CMC in the colder than last run pile.

Very reasonable takes in here. It’s tough to get real impact at 31/32 degrees as we’ve seen so many times in the past. Each situation is different, would like one to trend towards more wintry weather (of course!). The ICON and GFS were noticeably colder at 12Z for whatever it’s worth.

I was fully ready to write this one off as "ice never verifies as significant as modeled". But dang that Euro run has me interested! Much colder than the 0Z run.

Looks like the 18Z GFS with a noticeably colder solution vs. the 12Z run.

See ya at 0Z!

What’s the opposite of being bullseye’d??? I live just slightly north of the minimum. At least the tracking has been decent. Some years we get neither!

Kinda nice in a way to have no skin in the game. I get the “I’d take 10 in a heartbeat” sentiment, but if Euro takes 12+ away from me right before game time I’d be a mess!

Nice tick west on the 0Z RGEM for those keeping score.

Interesting NAM run. Eastern sections scraped by the coastal.

I'll take the 968 at the mouth of the Chesapeake!

LOL. Euro doesn't want to surrender! Doesn't mean much for us but places to the east have a huge difference right now between Euro and pretty much every other model.

Just a little different than the Euro!

Not just the Euro but its ensembles too. They've been downright terrible. GFS really taking the Euro to the woodshed this year.

Pretty crazy how different the GFS is. Verbatim it's little to no impact anywhere. It will be entertaining to follow simply to see what ultimately verifies. I think the 12Z Euro makes a sizeable move to the GFS...just a guess.

It hasn't been all bad news since the 0Z suite but what you are saying right here is my biggest worry. Typically, at go time the western extent of the precip shield doesn't materialize as modeled. If you are on the western edge prepare to be disappointed. So we need some cushion which we clearly don't have. Then let's say the NAM and Euro are just a bit overamped and move slightly to the GFS and they basically meet in the middle. That's game over for anyone in this sub. Let's hope we can pull a miracle 12 seconds to get into field goal range Andy Reid magic...I think we need it!

The 0Z GFS really isn't all that great for SNE. Boston and Cape do ok but it's nothing historic.

Looks ok to me

Nice seeing a cluster of lows to the west of the mean. As pointed out by Blizz93, some of those are strong and close to the coast. Interesting.

I'm missing 18 hours of that map (vs. 12Z). I just stole it from the Mid-Atl forum. I don't have Euro access