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GrandmasterB

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Everything posted by GrandmasterB

  1. GrandmasterB
    0Z GFS a tick snowier down here. About the same as 18Z for true central.
  2. GrandmasterB
    About the same as 18Z here. Beefed up for true central though.
  3. GrandmasterB
    The NAM looks like a line of thunderstorms that turns to snow in our area. Whatever falls will be heavy for a few hours!
  4. GrandmasterB
    Yeah, I’m definitely cool with the optimism. My posts aren’t directed at anyone, just general venting. This season has been awful which is annoying.
  5. GrandmasterB
    Melt - Short for meltdown like trainingtime’s this morning. I’m selling 3-4 down here. State College? Sure. But since last night’s great Euro run all trends have been to hold off on precip down here until it’s too warm.
  6. GrandmasterB
    Slipping away down here as others predicted. Well at least I have a great melt lined up for Wednesday morning!
  7. GrandmasterB
    GFS trimmed the southeast edge in a disconcerting way but still implies a nice front end thump.
  8. GrandmasterB
    18Z NAM is the fail scenario where the main precip waits until the warm air gets here. Certainly can’t discount that possibility. It would be quite a nut punch considering how bad our run has been.
  9. GrandmasterB
    Great melt this morning! (Which I respect) I promise to better it if I don’t see at least 2” Wednesday.
  10. GrandmasterB
    Globals are going to under estimate the CAD. That’s not a weenie line, but legit when we should actually use the NAM. I would toss the CMC thermals for the thump. For example, the 12ZCMC actually has the 2” further south and East then its 0Z run but the 6 hour panels looked terrible.
  11. GrandmasterB
    I’ve seen that before when nowcasting radar. Precip is streaming well north while the thermals are getting wrecked. Just have to hope it doesn’t play out like that on this storm.
  12. GrandmasterB
    I thought GFS at least held serve down here. Certainly cut back for true central but I wouldn’t be too worried there.
  13. GrandmasterB
    ^or what Bubbler said!!
  14. GrandmasterB
    State College added in the discussion that the airmass will be dry ahead of the precip which allows that initial slug to fall as snow. Just gotta hope it comes in hot and heavy before the warm air wins out.
  15. GrandmasterB
    NWS State College notes that they made significant changes for Wednesday and it reads much more bullish. MAG is the goat!
  16. GrandmasterB
    Nice overnight runs. Looks like the trend was just colder overall. I’ll gladly accept my defeat to MAG!
  17. GrandmasterB
    12Z models continuing to trend warmer here in the southeast for Wednesday. I’m going to go against you and say I’m not seeing 1”. I hope I’m wrong and you’re right!!
  18. GrandmasterB
    All of that accum down here is on the backend. Most likely fraudulent but trend is interesting.
  19. GrandmasterB
    Yeah, the NAM was noticeable in how much colder it was than 12Z. Also, as others mentioned starting to see some support for the R/S line to crash back to the southeast at some point. Interesting to see if that holds up during the 0Z runs. Feels like we've been tracking this one forever and we still have a full day to go!
  20. GrandmasterB
    Pains me to say it but...I kind of see Wednesday turning into tomorrow's event. Anyone close to that SE edge may see any accumulations march steadily northwest. 12Z Euro already starting that move. Why bet against the seasonal trend at this point?
  21. GrandmasterB
    Life on the southeast edge of the snow/no snow cutoff is not a fun one.
  22. GrandmasterB
    That’s the something!
  23. GrandmasterB
    0Z NAM a tick colder Sunday night. Not a big difference but if you’re a hopeless snow tracker it’s…something?
  24. GrandmasterB
    Yeah I’m torn at this point. We’re just past the halfway point in terms of snow accumulation average. Still a little early to go all in on futility rooting. I would like to see some snow, but if LNS is at 0 by March 1 then let’s go full shutout!
  25. GrandmasterB
    My extremely low bar of 1” looking like it won’t happen around my area. Just a crazy poor winter!
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