GrandmasterB

Narrator: They did not.

That line is looking pretty gnarly. I only check in during the summer if I expect the goods so you guys better deliver!

I was hoping someone would make that joke. One of my all time favorites!

The sun felt great today! I’m going to call it quits and officially say I’m ready for spring. It was great riding with all of you even though this winter was beyond dreadful. One of my favorite winter activities is waking up and immediately checking the models and all of the overnight posts. Can’t wait to start it all over again in October. I occasionally check in on severe, but for the most part I’ll be out until first frost. Hope everyone stays safe and well until then, and maybe we can plan a get together in the fall! Thanks again friends!!

100% correct. I know sun angle gets thrown around a lot across the forums, but in March it can be an accumulation killer. Especially, as you pointed out, in light to moderate intensity periods.

Shaping up to be a pretty big bust though in populated areas of CT/Eastern Mass. Forecast areas of 12-16 may end up with a few inches or none at all. Kinda fun to track actually since I had no emotional investment like I would have if it was impacting down here!

This New England storm is crazy. Every model has a sick cutoff depending on exact track and elevation. Check this out: Nothing to 24” in a few miles:

Crazy model war with this storm for New England. GFS is not impressive outside of elevated areas. 163 pages for this storm in their sub forum. Almost makes me glad to be on the sideline!

Interesting NAM run

Yeah, sounds like it’s later with the coastal development which is a move towards the GFS.

Euro definitely looks good, but it’s a bit on its own with how quickly it strengthens the coastal south of us. If the coastal is delayed like the GFS then the best (and maybe only) snow is well north and east. Today will be a critical day to see if the Euro folds or the other globals trend towards it.

A track like that is a much easier way for for the southeast crew to score. I’d roll the dice with that look, even if verbatim it’s too warm.

That was a painful one. I’d prefer not to repeat it!

Looks a hair south of 6Z. Southern counties are riding the line. Snowy from central on north.

Yeah, I’m good to lock that Euro run! Under 96 hours now too.

18Z Euro ensembles look nice

One thing for certain, the pattern has potential. Just gotta find a way to cash!

I think you have great analysis, Nut but I have to disagree on calling this one progressive. Verbatim the GFS has the coastal low looping over and around Long Island for 18+ hours. I wouldn’t label that track progressive, the block is slowing it down it’s just too far north.

If this were 75-100 miles further south it would be very very good. Typically not a lot to ask for 100+ out but we all know the drill this year:

My fear in rooting for ITT2 is that one could be easily squashed by ITT1. The spacing is pretty bad. Based on the season so far, we’ll figure out a way to whiff on both.

If that’s a reference to Bud Bundy you win today.

This theory hasn’t worked all year, but I’m sticking with “I don’t want to be bullseyed 110 hours out”. In the past, there have been times that the block has forced adjustments in track further south on each subsequent model suite. I’m rolling with that for now!

Both the GFS and CMC were further south than their previous runs and pretty close to something decent for C-PA. Still awhile to go.

Euro control has to be right one time this winter, right? RIGHT???

Let’s ride this one to the end, Blizz!!